Conservatives Tick Down Slightly But…
…they’d still win if an election
were held today
Toronto, April 29th – In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1595 Canadian voters, with those decided
and leaning, 4 in 10 (37%) say they would support the Conservatives, with a
third (30%) saying they would support the Liberals and one-sixth (14%)
supporting the NDP.
1 in 10 (9%) support the Green Party and few
support the BQ (6%), the People’s Party of Canada (2%), or another party (2%).
Those aged 45-54 (42%), males (46%), earning
between $80,000 to $100,000 (48%), and living in Alberta (66%) are most likely
to support the Conservatives.
Respondents most likely to say they support the
Liberals include those aged 65 and over (36%), females (33%), with
post-graduate degrees (37%), and those living in Atlantic Canada (34%), Quebec
(34%), and Ontario (34%).
If an election were held today, these results
suggest the Conservatives would win a majority government of 173 seats. The Liberals
would serve as the official opposition with 109 seats. The NDP would secure 27
seats, BQ would secure 27, and the Green Party would secure 2 seats.
1 in 3 say Scheer would make the
best Prime Minister
A third (31%) say Andrew Scheer would make the
best Prime Minister regardless of which party they plan to vote for. 3-in-10 (27%)
say Justin Trudeau, 1 in 10 (13%) say Elizabeth May or (8%) say Jagmeet Singh
would make the best Prime Minister.
One-fifth (20%) of respondents say they don’t
know.
6-in-10 disapprove of the job
Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime
Minister, 6-in-10 (61%) disapprove, while about a third approve (30%), and 1-in-10
(9%) don’t know. Trudeau’s net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is
-31.
4 in 10 disapprove of the job Scheer
is going as leader of opposition
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Andrew Scheer is doing as the leader of
the opposition, 4 in 10 (41%) disapprove, while a third (34%) approve, and a
third (25%) don’t know. Scheer’s net favourable score is -8.
4 in 10 don’t know if they approve
or disapprove of Singh as leader of the NDP
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh is doing as leader of the
NDP, a third (26%) approve, 4-in-10 (40%)
disapprove, and a third (34%) don’t know. Singh’s net favourable score is-14.
4 in 10 approve of May as the
leader of the Green Party
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Elizabeth May is doing as the leader of
the Green Party, 4 in 10 (42%) respondents approve, a quarter (25%) disapprove,
and another third (34%) don’t know. May
has the only positive net favourable score out of the four party leaders, 17.
Is Canada better or worse right
now than in 2015?
When asked if
Canada is doing better or worse than it was 4 years ago, over half (BTM2: 58%)
stated it was worse, with 2 in 10 (22%) saying it is “a bit worse” and a third (36%)
saying Canada is “much worse”.
4-in-10 (TOP2: 42%)
say Canada is doing better than 4 years ago, with less than a third (29%)
saying it was “a bit better” and 1 in 10 (13%) saying it’s much better.
“The Conservatives still lead over the Liberals, but their lead has narrowed slightly,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Even though their lead has dipped slightly, If the election were held today the Federal Conservatives would form government.”
