Of those that understand the SNC situation, more than half say it will impact their vote

Of those that understand the SNC situation, more than half say it will impact their vote

Toronto, May 1^st – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1595 Canadian voters, just over half of voters (TOP2: 52%), down 7 points since March (March 1: (TOP2) 59%), say the SNC-Lavalin situation will have an impact on their vote in the upcoming federal election, with nearly a third (31%), down five points since March (March 1: 36%) saying it will have a strong impact. 

More than three quarters (TOP2: 77%) of Conservative voters say it will impact their vote. 

It will likewise affect the vote of Green (TOP2: 60%) and NDP (TOP2: 55%) supporters. 

About half (BTM2: 48%) say it won’t impact their vote, with nearly a third (31%) saying it won’t impact their vote at all. 

More than 8 in 10 (BTM2: 84%), up 14 points since March (March 1: (BTM2) 70%) of Liberal voters say it won’t have an impact on their vote. 

Of those who said it’ll have an impact, half say they are more likely to vote Conservative 

Half of respondents (49%) who indicated the SNC situation will impact their vote said they are more likely to vote Conservative. Respondents most likely to say they are more likely to vote Conservative include those aged 35-54 (53%), males (54%), whose income is between $80k-$100k (65%), have completed college or university (52%), living in Alberta (81%), and already saying they will be supporting the Conservatives (93%). 

One sixth say they are more likely to vote Liberal (13%) or NDP (14%), 1 in 10 (11%) say they are more likely to vote Green, 1 in 20 are more likely to vote BQ, (4%), for another party (5%), or are less likely to vote in general (5%).

 Of the Liberal voters that said the SNC situation will impact their vote, just over half (56%) said they are more likely to vote Liberal, while 1 in 10 (12%) said they’re more likely to vote Conservative, NDP (13%), or Green (9%). 

Two-thirds say they could explain the situation if asked 

Nearly two thirds (TOP2: 65%), up 10 points since March (March 1: (TOP2) 55%), say they could confidently explain the situation related to the Prime Minister’s Office. More than a third (35%), up 8 points since March (March 1: 27%) say they are very confident in explaining the situation.

Those supporting the PPC (TOP2: 86%) are most likely to say they could confidently explain the situation. 

Over a third (BTM2: 35%) say they couldn’t confidently explain the situation, with nearly a quarter (22%) saying they couldn’t do so confidently. 

BQ or Green (43%) voters are most likely to say they couldn’t confidently explain it.

Three-quarters say it’s worsened their opinion of Trudeau 

Three quarters (76%), up an astounding 19 points (March 1: 57%), say that the situation has worsened their opinion of Justin Trudeau, while a fifth (21%), down 15 points (March 1: 36%),said it had no effect, and less than 1 in 10 (3%), down 4 points (March 1: 7%) said it’s improved their opinion of the Prime Minister. 

Respondents most likely to say their opinion has worsened include those aged 55- 64 (83%), earning $80k or more (83%), with a college/university (80%) or post-graduate degree (79%), living in the prairies (MB/SK) (91%), and supporting the Conservatives (87%) or the NDP (84%).

“People have been paying attention to the situation between the Prime Minister and SNC Lavalin, as two-thirds say they could explain it, if asked,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The troubling thing for the Liberals is that amongst that group, three-quarters say SNC has worsened their opinion of the Prime Minister, which is a lot higher than when we last tested the question.”