Majority
favour coalition if minority government elected
Liberal/NDP pact supported by one half
TORONTO June 5th,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1156 Canadian
voters, the majority, close to 6-in-10, agrees a coalition is appropriate if no
party wins a majority of votes (57%), and this is especially the opinion of
Liberals (67%) and New Democrats (75%), while not being the view of many
Conservatives (36%).
Coalition favoured if no party wins majority
When
voters are asked what kind of government they would support in the event of a
minority, the plurality, a third, opt for a coalition (33%), while just fewer
say they will support the party with the most seats (29%). Half as many choose
the constitutionally correct answer - whomever has the confidence of the house
(14%). About one quarter don’t have an opinion (14%) or would favour another
arrangement (10%). Conservatives strongly favour supporting the party with the
most seats (52%), while Liberals (40%) and New Democrats (45%) favour a coalition.
Liberal/NDP coalition is favoured
When
asked if they would support each of the three possible coalitions implied in a
three party system, one half of voters will support a Liberal/NDP coalition in
the event of a Conservative minority (49%). Half this many would support an
NDP/Conservative pact (26%) or a Conservative/Liberal pairing (27%). New
Democrats would be most in favour of an NDP/Liberal coalition (75%).
Conservatives are the most likely to favour a Conservative/Liberal pairing
(39%) while both Conservatives (39%) and New Democrats (25%) are apt to favour
a Conservative/NDP cooperative government.
"A coalition is most popular
when it is a union of the progressive parties against the one right wing party.
Any other pairing attracts limited interest. Unfortunately, coalitions can’t be
voted for, they must be arranged by the parties after the election, and most of
the interest appears to be as a fallback in case neither of the progressive
parties wins the election," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
