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Federal Conservatives and Liberals Now
Tied
Our
projection shows 152 seats for the Conservatives, 150 for the Liberals
Toronto, July 30th – In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1733 Canadian voters, amongst those
decided and leaning, a third (34%) say they would support the Conservatives if
an election were held today, while a similar proportion (31%) say they support
the Liberals.
1 in 10 (12%) say they would support the Greens,
while a similar proportion (12%) say they would support the NDP.
About 1 in 20 (5%) say they would support the
BQ, while a similar proportion would support the PPC (5%). Few (3%) are
supporting another party.
If these results were projected into seats, we
expect a razor thin minority parliament with the Conservatives holding 152
seats and with the Liberals securing 150.
The NDP would win 22, the BQ would win 11, and
the Green would win 3.
Respondents most likely to say they support the
Conservatives include those aged 55-64 (35%) or 65+ (37%), males (38%), earning
$80-100,000 (37%) or the most wealthy (37%), the least educated (45%), and
living in Alberta (62%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the
Liberals include those aged 45-54 (34%), 55-64 (35%) or 65+ (35%), earning
$60-80,000 (38%) or the most wealthy (35%), the most educated (36%), and living
in Atlantic Canada (34%), Québec (34%), or Ontario (36%).
Trudeau
sees approval from a third, disapproval from more than half
Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (34%) and
disapproval from more than half (55%), with about 1 in 10 (11%) saying they
don’t know. His net favourable score is -21 (approve-disapprove).
Scheer
sees approval from a quarter, and disapproval from half
A third (27%) say they approve of Andrew Scheer, while
half (48%) say they disapprove. One-quarter (25%) say they don’t know. Scheer’s
net favourable score is -21 (approve-disapprove).
Singh’s
approval is at a quarter, his disapproval and don’t know are the same
A quarter (24%) say they approve of Jagmeet Singh,
while 4 in 10 (39%) say they disapprove. A similar proportion (37%) also say
that they don’t know. His net favourable score is -15 (approve-disapprove).
May’s
approval remains strong
4 in 10 (42%) say they approve of Elizabeth May, while
a quarter (25%) say they disapprove. A third (33%) say they do not know. Her net
favourable score is +17, the only score in the positives (approve-disapprove).
“The gap between the Liberals and
the Conservatives has narrowed again, and we’re now seeing the parties run neck
and neck nationally,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Based
on the numbers we’re seeing today we’d project only a two-seat difference
between the two parties. Did the Conservatives peak too early? Or were people
parking their votes with the opposition party just to see what happens? Whatever
the case may be, this election, much like the last one, should be exciting from
start to finish.”
