Canadians Divided on Federal
Election Winner
Think Conservatives best on Economy,
Greens on Environment
Toronto, August 8th, 2019 – In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1733 Canadian voters, (38%) say that they
think the Conservatives will win the Federal election (*note this is not voter
intention, but expectation of the election winner), while a similar proportion
(36%) say it will be the Liberals.
1 in 20 (6%) say the NDP will win the election,
while a hopeful few (2%) say it will be the Green Party. A few (2%) think it
will be another party, but one sixth (16%) say they do not know.
Respondents most likely to say the Conservatives
will win include those aged 18-34 (43%), 55-64 (40%), males (45%), earning
$80-100k (42%) or the most wealthy (42%), living in Alberta (61%), and
supporting the Conservatives (79%).
It’s worth noting that: 1 in 10 (9%) Liberal
voters, one-quarter (27%) of NDP voters and one-quarter (25%) of Green voters,
just over a quarter (29%) of BQ voters, and 4 in 10 (43%) PPC voters think the
Conservatives will win.
Respondents most likely to say the Liberals will
win include those aged 35-44 (42%) or 45 to 54 (39%), earning $60-80k (43%),
$80-100k (40%), or the most wealthy (43%), the most educated (45%), living in
Atlantic Canada (40%) or Québec (42%), and supporting the Liberals (76%).
It’s worth noting that: 1 in 10 (11%) Conservative voters, one-quarter (26%) of
NDP voters, one-third (34%) of Green voters, one-third (33%) of BQ supporters,
and 1 in 10 (12%) PPC voters think the Liberals will win.
Trudeau and Scheer tied for Best PM
A quarter (28%) think Justin Trudeau would make
the best Prime Minister, the same proportion thinks Andrew Scheer (28%) would
make the best Prime Minister.
A quarter (23%) said they don’t know who would
make the best Prime Minister.
One-sixth (14%) say Elizabeth May would make the
best Prime Minister, while about 1 in 10 (7%) say it would be Jagmeet Singh.
Conservatives best for the economy
4 in 10 (38%) say the Conservatives would be
best for the economy if they were elected, while a third (32%) say it would be
the Liberals.
1 in 10 (10%) say it would be the NDP, while 1
in 20 (6%) say it would be the Green Party or another party (4%).
1 in 10 (10%) say they don’t know.
Respondents most likely to say the Conservatives
would be best for the economy if elected include those aged 18-34 (39%), 45-54
(39%), 55-64 (41%), or 65 and over (38%), males (46%), earning $80-100k (45%)
or the most wealthy (43%), the least educated (42%) or with some
college/university (40%), living in Alberta (65%), and supporting the
Conservatives (89%).
Respondents most likely to say the Liberals
would be best for the economy if elected include those aged 45-54 (38%) or 65
and older (37%), females (35%), the most educated (40%), living in Atlantic
Canada (39%), Québec (36%), or Ontario (37%), and supporting the Liberals
(80%).
Half say Green best for the environment
Half (48%) of Canadians say the Green party
would be best for the environment if elected, with one sixth (15%) saying it
would be the Liberals and one-sixth (15%) saying it would be the Conservatives.
1 in 10 (7%) say that the NDP would be best for
the environment, with 1 in 20 (4%) saying it would be another party.
1 in 10 (11%) say they don’t know.
Respondents most likely to say the Green party
would be best for the environment if elected include those aged 18-34 (61%),
females (51%), earning $40-60k (54%) or $80-100k (57%), with a
college/university (50%) or post-graduate (52%) degree, living in Atlantic
Canada (57%), and supporting the Green party (90%).
“The Liberals
and Conservatives are tied both on who would make the best Prime Minister, and
which party will actually win the election,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President
of Forum Research. “The Conservatives are leading on the economy, with the
Liberals slightly behind, and the Greens lead on the environment. What should
concern the NDP, however, is how far behind they are on best party for the
environment: it used to be an issue they controlled well, but now they’re
behind everyone.”
