NDP lead
slips slightly
Parties approach parity
TORONTO June 30th,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1221 Canadian
voters, just fewer than one third will vote NDP if the federal election were
held today (32%) and this represents a drop from their high of more than a
third noted last week (June 23 - 36%). At the same time, the Liberals attract
the votes of just fewer than 3-in-10 (29%) and the Conservatives have the votes
of just fewer (27%), and this hasn’t changed (June 23 - 28% each). The Greens
(4%) and the Bloc Quebecois (6%) each attract about one twentieth of the vote,
and very few will vote other parties (1%).
In
Ontario, the Liberals are tied (35%) with the Conservatives (32%) and ahead of
the NDP (27%). In Quebec, the NDP have the lead with a third of the vote (33%)
while the Liberals (22%) and Bloc (23%) strive for second. In BC, the NDP are
firmly in first (43%), in Alberta, the Conservatives (41%) are increasingly
challenged by the NDP (37%), and in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (39%) are
being challenged by the NDP as well (34%). Conservatives (32%) and Liberals
(35%) are tied in the Prairies, and the NDP is slightly behind (29%). These
findings represent a setback for the NDP in Ontario, and an increase in Alberta
and the Atlantic provinces.
One
quarter of those who voted Liberal in 2011 will vote NDP this time (27%), which
is a reversal of the usual situation, where about one quarter of past NDP
voters would vote Liberal this time. One fifth of past NDP voters will vote
Liberal this time around (19%). Fewer past Conservatives will vote Liberal
(14%) or NDP (15%).
Deadlock seen in the House
If
these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the parties
would be close to deadlock, with the NDP taking a minority of 119 (31 less than
needed for a majority), the Liberals capturing 106 and the Conservatives
occupying 104. The Green Party would keep their leader’s seat, and the
Bloquistes would seat 8 members.
NDP has second choice advantage
While
one half of NDP voters pick the Liberals as their second choice (49%), close to
two thirds of Liberal voters select the New Democrats as their second choice
party (60%). Just less than a quarter of Conservative voters would pick either
the Liberals or the NDP second (22% each). The Green Party is the second choice
of one fifth of New Democrats (21%), but this is not the case with other
partisans.
Mulcair’s favourables up, others steady
More
than on half of the electorate approve of Tom Mulcair (53%), up from one half
last week (June 23 - 50%), and his net favourable rating (approve minus
disapprove) has increased from a very positive +25 to an even better +32.
Justin Trudeau’s approval is steady at close to 4-in-10 (38% this week and
last) and his net has fallen slightly from -3 to -6. Stephen Harper has the
steady approval of 3-in-10 (31% this week, 30% last week) and his net score is
an abysmal -30.
Conservatives still expected to win
Voters
are still slightly more likely to expect the Conservatives to win the federal
election (30%) than they are the NDP (26%) or the Liberals (27%), despite their
stated preference for the NDP. Conservatives are far more certain of their
party’s victory (81%), than are Liberals (66%) or New Democrats (58%) of theirs.
Mulcair seen as best PM
Close
to 3-in-10 voters see Tom Mulcair as the best choice for Prime Minister (29%),
compared to about one quarter who think this of Stephen Harper (25%) and a
fifth who pick Justin Trudeau (21%). Few pick Elizabeth May (7%) or Gilles
Duceppe (3%), and some say none is up to the task (10%). Mulcair dominates this
measure in Quebec (41%) and leads strongly in BC (36%). Harper is slightly
preferred in Ontario (30%) and more strongly in Alberta (39%) and Justin
Trudeau leads only in Atlantic Canada (32%), although not by much. As many as
one fifth of Liberal voters think Tom Mulcair would make the best Prime
Minister (18%).
"It appears the parties have
begun to converge in the polling, and they’re seeking parity among the
electorate. The NDP lead is not quite so clear now, the Liberals aren’t really
trailing so much and the Conservatives are still holding on to their core
support. The Liberals appear to be thriving in Ontario, while the NDP centre of
gravity is shifting westward, to Alberta and BC, especially, where they’re now
dominant. We have to look also at the seat projections, which hold the promise
of something close to a hung parliament. This is going to be a very interesting
election," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne
Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be
reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
