Tories Maintain Slight Lead in Neck and Neck Federal Election

| Filed under: National
Photo by Jason Hafso on Unsplash

Toronto, Sept 11th, 2021 – In the first poll conducted following the federal election English debate by Forum Research among eligible Canadian voters shows that if the election were held today most decided / leaning voters would vote Conservative (31%), followed by Liberal (28%), NDP (18%), People’s Party of Canada (9%),  Bloc Quebecois (8%), and Green (4%).

Since the last poll conducted by Forum Research on Aug 15th, the most notable difference is that the support for People’s Party of Canada has almost doubled, from 5% to 9%. With the largest increases coming from Alberta (from 4% to 12%), the Atlantic (from 5% to 14%), and British Columbia (from 4% to 11%).

There are significant regional differences across the country in political party support.  In the crucial battleground of Ontario, the gap in political support between Liberals and Conservatives is the smallest, at 35% and 33% respectively, with 17% of voters supporting the NDP.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois have a lead at 35%, followed by Liberals at 24%, and then Conservatives, NDP, People’s Party of Canada, and Green Party, (19%, 9%, 6%, and 4%, respectively). The most notable difference in Quebec since the last poll is that Bloc Quebecois saw a significant increase in support, from 27% to 35%.

In Manitoba / Saskatchewan the Conservatives enjoys a comfortable lead of 48%, followed by the NDP (25%), Liberals (20%), and People’s Party of Canada (5%). The Conservative party also has a stronghold in Alberta (45%), followed by the NDP (22%), Liberals (14%), and People’s Party of Canada (12%). In British Columbia, Conservatives enjoy a lead of 31%, followed by NDP with 27%, Liberals with 24%, and People’s Party of Canada at 11%. In the Atlantic provinces, Liberals lead with 34%, followed by Conservatives (30%), the NDP (16%), and People’s Party of Canada (14%).

These voting intention results, if held on election day, would likely yield approximately 129 Tory seats, 121 Liberal seats, 51 Bloc Quebecois seats, and 34 NDP seats. Within a range of approximately plus or minus 10 seats for each party.  These results will change as voting intentions change and are subject to the usual margins of error.

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,579 randomly selected eligible voters across Canada. The poll was conducted on Sept 10th, 2021. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate.  Margins of error for subsample and regional results are available at

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms.

Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: