Federal
Conservatives surge; tied with NDP
New seat allocation favours Conservative minority; Harper
approval up
TORONTO July 8th,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1200 Canadian
voters, exactly equal proportions, one third each, will vote for the New
Democrats or the Conservatives (32% each) if a federal election were held
today. Fewer, about one quarter, would vote Liberal (26%). These findings
represent stability for the NDP, who led the poll last week at one third of the
votes (32%), but a sharp increase in voting preference for the Conservatives
(from 27%). The Liberals have seen their vote decrease slightly since last week
(June 30 - 29%). The Greens would take a small share of the vote (3%), as would
the Bloc Quebecois (5%). Very few will vote any other party (1%).
In
vote-rich Ontario, the three parties are essentially tied (Conservative - 32%,
Liberal - 33%, NDP - 31%), while in Quebec the NDP have a slight lead (29%)
over the Conservatives (26%), while the Liberals (23%) and the Bloc trail
(18%). In Atlantic Canada, the three parties are tied (Conservatives - 32%,
Liberals- 29%, NDP - 33%), while in Alberta, the Conservatives dominate (54%)
and the NDP are at half this level (28%). The NDP is dominant in BC (41%),
followed by the Liberals (29%) and Conservatives (23%). In the prairies, the
Conservatives (41%) and NDP (42%) are tied.
More
than a quarter of those who voted Liberal in 2011 will vote NDP this time
around (27%) and this is twice the proportion which will switch between other
parties.
Strong Conservative minority seen
If
these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the
Conservatives would capture a strong minority of 155 seats, 15 fewer than
required for a majority. The NDP would take 120 seats and the Liberals 59. The
Bloc would seat two members, the Green Party would retain the leader’s seat and
one independent would sit.
Liberals, NDP equally likely to be second choice
About
one half of Liberal voters pick the NDP as their second choice (49%), and the
same goes for NDP voters picking the Liberals second (47%). One tenth of
Liberals pick the Greens second (12%) and about one quarter of NDP voters do so
too (24%). While close to one fifth of Liberals will take the Conservatives
second (18%), only half this many New Democrats will (8%). It is clear that the
NDP has the strongest advantage in the event of tactical voting, in that their
combined total share of the vote is more than half the electorate (55%), while
the Liberal ceiling is one half (50%). By contrast, the vote ceiling for the
Conservatives is just 4-in-1 (41%).
Harper approval up, Mulcair suffers
More
than a third of voters approve of the job being done by Stephen Harper (35%)
and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a negative -24. This
represents an improvement for the Prime Minister since last week (from 31% and
-30). By contrast, Tom Mulcair’s approval is down (from 53% last week to 48%
now) and his net score has dropped from +32 to +24, still very positive. Justin
Trudeau’s approval is up slightly (from 38% to 41%), as is his net score (-6 to
0) since last week.
Higher expectations for NDP victory now
Three-in-ten
voters expect the Conservatives to win the next election (30%) and this hasn’t
changed, but close to this proportion now also believe the NDP will win (28%,
up from 26%). Expectations of a Liberal victory have fallen (from 28% to 24%).
Conservatives are more certain of their party’s victory (77%) than are either
Liberals (69%) or New Democrats (65%).This tends to be a lagging measure, and
reflects voting preferences seen several weeks prior.
Mulcair, Harper seen as best PM
While
Tom Mulcair leads on the measure of best Prime Minister (27%) Stephen Harper is
close behind (25%), while Justin Trudeau trails slightly (23%). Few pick
Elizabeth May (6%) or Gilles Duceppe (4%), and one tenth think none of them is
fit for the job (9%).
Voters claim they support party with best policies
One
half of voters claim they decide who to vote for by selecting the party with
the best policies (47%), while just more than a tenth say they vote for the
best leader (14%), the best candidate in their riding (13%) or because it’s
time for a change (12%). Just fewer than this say they vote for the party they
always vote for (8%). Conservatives are especially likely to vote for their
usual party (10%) or the best leader (19%), while Liberals are especially
likely to vote for change (18%). Liberals are less likely than others to say
they vote the party with the best policies (44%).
"Well, the other shoe has
dropped, and the voters have begun to vet Tom Mulcair, because he’s suddenly
the frontrunner, according to media polling. They've have had a closer look and
have found him somewhat wanting. It is instructive that they do not return
their favour to Justin Trudeau, the previous frontrunner, but begin to appreciate
the Prime Minister more than in the past. We have said the electorate is
looking for a fair fight, and they’re dispensing their support accordingly,
across all three parties. If these small shifts in electoral favour keep
occurring, no predictions about this election will be possible," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
