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Liberal
Minority Government Likely
Toronto, September 19, 2021- In a random sampling of public opinion
taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1181 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and
leaning, a third (33%) say they support the Conservatives, while slightly less
(29.4%) say they support the Liberals.
16.2% say they support the New Democratic Party (NDP), 10.3% say they
support the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), 6.9% say they support the Bloc
Quebecois (BQ), and 2.9% say they support the Greens. We expect a minority Liberal
parliament with the Liberals winning 143 seats, the Conservatives winning 138
seats, the NDP winning 29 seats, the BQ winning 26 seats, the Greens winning 2
seats, and the PPC winning zero seats.
Regional
Differences
There
are significant regional differences across the country in political party
support. In the Atlantic, the Liberals have taken a strong lead over the
Conservatives, with support being at 39.3% and 29%, respectively. This is
followed by the NDP (20%), and the PPC (11%).
In
Quebec, the Liberals have established a slight lead, with 32.1% of the vote.
The BQ are not far behind with 29.4% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives
(19.9%), NDP (9.4%), PPC (5.7%), other parties (2.2%), and Green (1.3%).
In
the crucial battleground of Ontario, the Conservatives have a lead with 35.1%
of the vote, followed by the Liberals (32.5%), NDP (17.8%), PPC (11.3%), and Green
(2.1%).
In
Manitoba / Saskatchewan, the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead of 38%
support, followed by the NDP (22.2%), Liberals (20%), PPC (15.9%), and Green (3.6%).
The
Conservative party also has a stronghold in Alberta (54.4%), followed by the PPC
(15.3%), NDP (13%), Liberals (11.6%), other parties (3.3%), and Green (2.4%).
In
British Columbia, Liberals enjoy a lead of 31.1%, followed by the Conservatives
(29.6%), NDP (21.1%), Green (9.5%), PPC (7.5%), and other parties (1.2%).
Gender
Differences
Male
respondents were significantly more likely to support right-leaning parties
than female respondents. Most notably, 40.8% of male respondents said they
would vote for the Conservative party, while only 26.1% of female respondents
said they would support the Conservatives. Additionally, 11.5% of males said
they would vote for the PPC, as opposed to 8.4% of females.
Likewise, the
NDP enjoy significantly more support from female voters than males, with 21.3%
of female voters saying they would vote for the NDP, as opposed to 9.7% of
males. The Liberals also enjoy slightly more support from women, with 32.9% of
female voters supporting the Liberals, as opposed to 26.8% of male voters.
The
Rise of the PPC
A notable change over this
election cycle is the sharp rise in support for the PPC. On August 15th,
2021, when the first Forum Poll of this election cycle was conducted, around 5%
of the public supported the PPC, which was similar to the 4% support the party
had during the 2019 federal election. A subsequent September 10th,
2021 Forum Poll found that around 9% of voters support the PPC. This is
consistent with the September 19th, 2021 Forum Poll, which found that
support for the PPC now hovers around 10.3%. However, despite this sharp
increase in support, the PPC are not projected to win any seats, given support
for the party is widely dispersed, and not strong enough in any one riding for
a PPC candidate to win.
Methodology
The poll was conducted by Forum
Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone
survey of 1181 randomly selected eligible voters across Canada. The poll was
conducted on Sept 19th, 2021. Results based on the total sample are
considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results
will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample and regional results are
available at: www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
This research is not necessarily
predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time.
The poll was sponsored by Forum Research Inc. as a public service. With offices
across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one
of the country’s leading survey research firms.
Forum Research follows the CRIC
Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found
here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
