Toronto, May 5th, 2022 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ on May 4th of 1541 eligible GTA voters, amongst those decided and leaning, 38% say they support the Progressive Conservatives (PCs), 31% say they support the Liberals, 25% support the New Democratic Party (NDP), 3% support the Greens, and 4% support another party.
These results are similar to the rest of Ontario, where 37% say they support the Progressive Conservatives (PCs), 29% of voters say they support the Liberals, 26% support the New Democratic Party (NDP), 4% support the Greens, and 4% support another party.
Regional Differences
In both the 416 and the 905 area, support is strongest for the PCs. In the 416, 35% of voters support the PCs, and in the 905, 38% of voters support them. The Liberals have second highest level of support, with 32% in the 416 and 30% in the 905. The NDP has 27% support in the 416 and 24% in the 905, followed by the Greens, with 3% support in both regions.
In the former City of Toronto, support is still strongest for the Liberals (37%) and NDP (37%), followed by the PCs (22%), and Greens (3%).
In the inner suburbs, the PCs have strong support from voters (41%), followed by the Liberals (30%), the NDP (22%), and the Greens (4%).
In East York, the NDP have a strong lead, with 52% of voters supporting them, followed by the Liberals (22%), the PCs (20%), and the Greens (4%).
In North York, the PCs have strong support from voters (44%), followed by the Liberals (25%), the NDP (21%), and the Greens (7%).
In Etobicoke, the PCs have strong support from voters (47%), followed by the Liberals (35%), the NDP (11%), and the Greens (3%).
In York, the PCs have strong support from voters (41%), followed by the Liberals (35%), the NDP (20%), and the Greens (3%).
In Scarborough, the PCs have strong support from voters (47%), followed by the Liberals (32%), the NDP (17%), and the Greens (<1%).
More
than one-third of GTA voters think Doug Ford would make the best premier
When
asked regardless of which party you would vote for, who would make the best
premier, 39% of GTA voters chose Doug Ford, with 39% approval in both the 416
and the 905 regions. Andrea Horwath received the second highest level of
support, with 21% of the GTA voters choosing her (21% in the 416 and 20% in the
905 regions). Steven Del Duca received the third highest level of support, with
18% of GTA voters choosing him (19% in the 416 and 18% in the 905).
Job
approval of party leaders
When
asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job Doug Ford is doing as
premier, 37% of GTA voters said they approved (37% in the 416 and 36% in the
905). When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job Andrea Horwath
and Steven Del Duca are doing as leaders of their respective parties, 29%
approve of Horwath (31% in the 416 and 29% in the 905), and 18% approve of Del
Duca (21% in the 416 and 17% in the 905).
Seats that are expected to switch parties
Based on these poll results, the Liberals would
likely pick up nine seats in the GTA that they did not win in 2018; four of
those seats from PC incumbents, and five from the NDP. Those seats are Ajax,
Eglinton—Lawrence, Humber River—Black Creek, Milton, Mississauga
East—Cooksville, Mississauga—Lakeshore, Oakville, St. Catharines, and
Toronto—St. Paul's.
The PCs are also expected to scoop two seats in
the GTA that they did not win in 2018; both from the NDP. Those are Scarborough
Southwest and York South—Weston.
The poll was conducted by Forum Research with
the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1541
randomly selected eligible voters across the GTA. The poll was conducted on May
4thth, 2022. Results based on the total sample are considered
accurate +/- 3 %, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be
less accurate. Margins of error for
subsample and regional results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but
rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum
Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the
world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading
survey research firms.
Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion
Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
