Toronto, June 1st, 2022 – In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ on June 1st
of 1032 eligible Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, 40.3% say
they support the Progressive Conservatives (PCs). 24.5% of voters say they
support the Liberals, 23.2% support the New Democratic Party (NDP), 6.5%
support the Greens, and 5.5% support another party.
Current seat projections suggest PCs are on
track to secure 86 seats, enough to form a majority government, with the NDP to
secure 31 seats, the Liberals to secure 6 seats, and the Greens to secure 1
seats.
Gender Differences
Males are significantly more likely to support
the PCs than females, with 50% of males and 32% of females supporting the PCs. Likewise,
females were more likely to support the Liberals (28% vs. 21%), the NDP (28% vs
18%), and the Greens (7% vs. 6%) than males. Males, however, were more likely
indicate that they would support another party than females (6% vs. 5%).
Age Differences
Those over the age of 45 are also most likely
to vote PC, with 44% of voters between 45 and 54, 43% of voters between 55 and
64, and 41% of voters 65 and older supporting the PCs.
Those under the age of 44, however, are most
likely to vote NDP, with 29% of voters between 35 to 44, and 28% of voters
under the age of 34 supporting the NDP.
Regional Differences
In Eastern Ontario, the PCs have the lead with
37% of the vote, followed by the NDP (30%), Liberals (26%), and the Greens (5%).
In the Toronto 416 area, the PCs have the lead
with 42% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (29%), the NDP (18%), and the
Greens (5%).
In the Toronto 905 area, the PCs have the lead
with 41% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (25%), the NDP (22%), and the
Greens (7%).
In the southwestern Ontario region, the PCs
have the lead with 36% of the vote, followed by the NDP (27%), the Liberals (22%),
and the Greens (6%).
In the Northern Ontario region, the PCs have
the lead with 48% of the vote, followed by the NDP (21%), Liberals (18%), and
the Greens (8%).
One-third of voters think Doug Ford would make
the best premier
When asked regardless of which party you would
vote for, who would make the best premier, 42% of voters chose Doug Ford,
followed by Andrea Horwath (17%) and Steven Del Duca (16%).
Job approval of party leaders
When asked whether they approve or disapprove
of the job Doug Ford is doing as premier, 39% of respondents said they
approved. When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job Andrea
Horwath and Steven Del Duca are doing as leaders of their respective parties, 31%
approve of Horwath, and 19% approve of Del Duca.
The poll was conducted by Forum Research with
the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1032 randomly
selected eligible voters across Ontario. The poll was conducted on June 1st,
2022. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3.1%, 19
times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample and regional
results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but
rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum
Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the
world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading
survey research firms.
Forum
Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure
Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
