Conservatives, NDP neck and neck on eve of BC election

Conservatives, NDP neck and neck on eve of BC election

Minority government likely for British Columbia

Toronto, October 18^th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 2,083 British Columbia voters ahead of the October 19^th provincial election, 43.4% of those who are decided or leaning are likely to vote for the Conservative Party while nearly as many, 42.7%, are likely to vote for the NDP. Voter support is modest for the Green Party (10.8%) and other parties (3.1%).

 

Conservative minority predicted, though NDP follows closely

We project 46 seats for the Conservatives, 45 seats for the NDP, and 2 seats for the Greens. Either party must win at least 47 seats to form a majority government.

“A third term for the NDP under David Eby seems unlikely with John Rustad’s Conservatives eking out a narrow lead ahead of election day,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "With similar levels of support from voters for both parties, a minority government is a likely outcome.”

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 2,083 randomly selected British Columbia residents over the age of 18, 71.9% by cellphone and 28.1% on landlines. The poll was conducted from October 15-17, 2024. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample and regional results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms. Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/