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Liberals Hold Lead Over Conservatives Heading into
Election Day
Liberals Within Reach of Majority Government
Toronto, April
27th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum
Poll™ among 1,153 Canadian voters
ahead of the April 28th federal election, 43% of those who are
decided or leaning are likely to vote for the Liberal Party while 39% are
likely to vote for the Conservative Party. Support for the New Democratic Party
(NDP) is at 8%, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the
Green Party at 2%, and the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) at 1%.
Liberals on track for majority with 186 seats; Conservatives
trail with 122
We project 186 seats for the Liberals, 122 seats for
the Conservatives, 29 seats for BQ, and 6 seats for NDP. A party must win at
least 172 seats to form a majority government.
“The Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, appears on
track to potentially secure a majority government,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. “Our projections show the Liberals are in strong
standing, with a majority government within reach.”.
The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an
interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,153 randomly selected Canadian
residents over the age of 18, 71% by cellphone and 29% on landlines. The poll
was conducted on April 27, 2025. Results based on the total sample are
considered accurate +/- 4.0%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional
results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample and regional
results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but
rather captures opinion at one point in time. With offices across Canada and
around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s
leading survey research firms. Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion
Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
