Trudeau seen as debate winner by
slight margin
One quarter may change vote
because of debate
TORONTO August 10th, 2015- In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1392
Canadian voters, two thirds watched or heard some of the federal leaders’
debate on August 6 (66%), especially the oldest (72%), the wealthy ($80K to
$100K - 74%), in Ontario (75%) and BC (74%) and among Anglophones (72%) but not
so much Francophones (48%).
Trudeau seen as winner,
others tied
Among those who saw or heard some of the debate, the slim
plurality see Justin Trudeau as the winner (20%), although an equal proportion
think no one won (20%). Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair and Elizabeth May are all
seen to be the winner by slightly smaller but equal proportions (17% each).
Just more than one half of Conservatives think Harper won
(54%), which is also the case for Liberals and Justin Trudeau (51%) but
significantly fewer New Democrats thought Mulcair won (38%). Significant
minorities of Liberals (15%) and New Democrats (22%) believe Elizabeth May won
the debate, as did a plurality of her supporters (43%).
One quarter may change vote
because of debate
Just less than one quarter will think about their vote after
seeing the debate (24%), and this is especially the case among the youngest
(32%), the least wealthy ($20K to $40K - 29%), in Alberta (27%), among Green
Party supporters (48%), mothers of children under 18 (34%) and past Bloc voters
(38%) - caution: small sample size).
“Trudeau
was not so much seen to be the out-and-out winner of the debate, but I think he
was seen to be be the one who lost the least. All the other debaters are
bunched up on his tail, so it is probable he will be the primary target in the
next go-round. Twenty-five percent vote switches as a result of debates are
very rare, but there are indications this discussion may have peeled off some
parked Green Party votes for the NDP," said Forum Research
President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
