Trudeau seen as debate winner by slight margin

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Trudeau seen as debate winner by slight margin

One quarter may change vote because of debate

TORONTO August 10th, 2015- In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1392 Canadian voters, two thirds watched or heard some of the federal leaders’ debate on August 6 (66%), especially the oldest (72%), the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 74%), in Ontario (75%) and BC (74%) and among Anglophones (72%) but not so much Francophones (48%).


Trudeau seen as winner, others tied

Among those who saw or heard some of the debate, the slim plurality see Justin Trudeau as the winner (20%), although an equal proportion think no one won (20%). Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair and Elizabeth May are all seen to be the winner by slightly smaller but equal proportions (17% each).

Just more than one half of Conservatives think Harper won (54%), which is also the case for Liberals and Justin Trudeau (51%) but significantly fewer New Democrats thought Mulcair won (38%). Significant minorities of Liberals (15%) and New Democrats (22%) believe Elizabeth May won the debate, as did a plurality of her supporters (43%).


One quarter may change vote because of debate

Just less than one quarter will think about their vote after seeing the debate (24%), and this is especially the case among the youngest (32%), the least wealthy ($20K to $40K - 29%), in Alberta (27%), among Green Party supporters (48%), mothers of children under 18 (34%) and past Bloc voters (38%) - caution: small sample size).


“Trudeau was not so much seen to be the out-and-out winner of the debate, but I think he was seen to be be the one who lost the least. All the other debaters are bunched up on his tail, so it is probable he will be the primary target in the next go-round. Twenty-five percent vote switches as a result of debates are very rare, but there are indications this discussion may have peeled off some parked Green Party votes for the NDP," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.