NDP shut out
TORONTO, MAY 15th,
2014 - In
a random sampling of public opinion among voters in three ridings where federal
by-elections will be held June 30, the federal Liberals lead in two and the
Conservatives in one, and the NDP do not lead in any.
Trinity-Spadina
Among the 625 voters polled in this riding, more than half
will vote for the Liberal candidate, former city councillor and TV personality,
Adam Vaughan (54%), while 3-in-10 will vote for the NDP standard-bearer, Joe
Cressy (31%). Just more than one tenth will vote Conservative (Ben Sharma -
13%), and very few will vote Green (2% - Rachel Barney's name was used) or for
any other party. Vaughan is especially popular among the youngest (65%), while
Cressy does well among females (35%) in the Gen X age bracket (45 to 54 - 35%).
Of note, close to one half of past NDP voters will cast a ballot for the
Liberals this time (44%), as will one quarter of past Conservative supporters
(24%).
Scarborough-Agincourt
Among the 571 voters sampled in Scarborough-Agincourt, close
to one half will vote the Liberal candidate, Arnold Chan (46%), while about
4-in-10 will support the Conservative candidates, Trevor Ellis (38%). Few
will support the NDP (9%), the Greens (2%) or any other party (5%). Close to
4-in-10 past NDP voters (38%) and one seventh of Conservative voters (15%) will
vote for the Liberals this time. In fact, just 3-in-10 past NDP voters will
vote for the party this time (30%).
Macleod
Among the 448 Macleod voters sampled, as many as two thirds
will vote for the Conservative candidate, John Barlow (62%), while one seventh
will vote for the Liberal, Dustin Fuller (15%). Few will vote NDP or Green (6%
each) or for any other party (11%). About one third of past Liberals will vote
Conservative this time (35%), and a similar proportion of past New Democrats
will vote Liberal (37%).
Fort McMurray-Athabasca
Polling was conducted in this riding but an adequate sample
for analysis was not collected.
“This looks like a pick-up for the Liberals from the NDP in
Trinity-Spadina, which would be return to this riding's roots. In the other two
ridings where we polled, the status quo seems to be the current situation, and we
don't expect serious upsets. The big question is what is going on in Fort
McMurray, but we can't answer that yet," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
