Liberal majority seen
TORONTO MARCH 31st, 2014 – In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 854 Quebec
voters one week before the provincial election, 4-in-10 will vote Liberal (41%),
compared to fewer than 3-in-10 who will vote Parti Quebecois (29%). One fifth
will vote CAQ (19%), less than a tenth will vote QS (7%) and few will vote
Green (2%), ON (1%) or for any other party (1%). These findings represent a
continuation of the decline we have seen for the PQ (March 5 - 38%, March 19 -
32%, March 31 - 29%), while the Liberals have plateaued (March 5 - 40%, March
19 - 45%, March 31 - 41%). The CAQ has seen its share increase since we polled
last (March 5 - 12%, March 19 - 13%, March 31 - 19%).
Close to 4-in-10 Francophones will vote
Liberal (39%), while 3-in-10 will vote PQ (30%) and one fifth will vote CAQ
(20%). Among non-Francophones, three quarters will vote Liberal (78%), compared
to fewer than one tenth who will vote PQ (7%) or CAQ (4%). The Liberals capture
close to half the vote in "la Couronne" around Montreal (48%).
The Liberal vote is the "stickiest"
in that almost all past Liberal voters will vote Liberal again (90%), while
about three quarters of past PQ voters will vote their party again (75%) and
just more than half of CAQistes will vote CAQ again (56%). Of note, 3-in-10
past CAQistes will vote Liberal this time (30%), and about half this proportion
will vote PQ (14%). One tenth of past Péquistes will vote CAQ this time around
(11%).
Slim Liberal majority seen
If
these results are projected up to seats in a 125 seat National Assembly, the
Liberals would capture a 2 seat majority of 65 seats, down from 78 the last
time we polled, while the PQ would take 51 seats, up from 43 on March 19. The
CAQ would take 7 seats, well up from 2, while the QS would take just 2 seats.
Legault's approvals up sharply after debate
Francois
Legault has the approval of more than half of Quebec voters (54%), well up from
the last time we polled (48%), and his net favourable score (approve minus
disapprove) is a shiny +27, well up from +16 last time. Philippe Couillard
enjoys the approval of close to half (45%, similar to 44% on March 19), and his
net is 3%, down slightly from +7. Mme Marois enjoys the approval of one third
(31%, steady from 32%) and her net score is a dismal -32, down from -28 on
March 19.
Very few want referendum
Fewer
than one quarter of Quebec voters want a referendum on independence (23%), and
more than 7-in-10 do not want one (71%). Just a quarter of Francophones want to
gamble on the future (26%), while two thirds do not (69%). Among
non-Francophones, just a tenth are in favour (12%), and more than 8-in-10 are
against the idea (82%). No Liberal voters to speak of want a referendum
(1%), and just 6-in10 PQ supporters do (59%).
CAQ and QS are strong second choices
In
total, about one quarter or more say CAQ is their second choice (28%), while
about half this proportion would opt for QS (16%). Among Liberal supporters,
CAQ is the only party that merits mention as a second choice (43%), and among
Péquistes, CAQ (31%) and QS (29%) are equally likely to be seen as good
alternatives. Among CAQistes, where the swing vote lies, the second choice is
twice as likely to be the Liberals (38%) as it is the PQ (19%). Francophones
are most likely to say their second choice is the CAQ (31%), followed by QS
(17%) and the Liberals (10%). Non-Francophones are most likely to say their
second choice is CAQ (16%) or the Greens (17%).
PQ has highest negatives, followed by Liberals
In
total, more than 4-in-10 would never vote PQ (44%), followed by one third who
won't support the Liberals (31%). Few say they would not support any other
party. Almost all Liberal supporters say they will never vote PQ (81%), while
somewhat fewer Péquistes would never vote Liberal (73%). CAQistes are more
likely to say they will not vote PQ (36%) than they are to say this of the
Liberals (26%), but many will never vote QS (19%). Francophones are equally
likely to say they will never vote Liberal (35%) or PQ (38%), while
non-Francophones are more likely to say they will never vote PQ (71%) than
Liberal (15%) or any other party.
“The
prospect of a referendum is an anchor around the PQ's neck, and it's going to
drown them. No one wants one, not Francophones, not the regions, not the young.
Even among their own supporters, enthusiasm doesn't reach two thirds. It looks
like "le beau projet" will have to be shelved again,"
said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
