Liberals with commanding lead in Quebec
Broad majority seen; PQ tied with CAQ
TORONTO APRIL 6th, 2014 – In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1251 decided
Quebec voters on April 3, close to half will vote Liberal (44%), compared to
just a quarter who will vote for the PQ (24%) or CAQ (23%). This represents an
increase in share for the Liberals since Monday, March 31 (from 41%),
accompanied by a sharp decrease for the PQ (from 29%). The CAQ is well up (from
19% to 23%). One twentieth or fewer will vote for QS (6%), the Greens (2%) or
any other party (1%).
Francophone
voters are more likely to vote Liberal (35%) than PQ (27%), and a similar
proportion will vote CAQ (28%). The non-Francophone vote belongs almost
completely to the Liberals (86%), compared to very few for the PQ (6%), CAQ
(2%), Green (3%) or QS (2%). Of those who voted CAQ in the past, 3-in-10 will
vote Liberal this time (29%), while just less than a tenth will vote PQ (8%).
Liberals to take 22 seat majority
If
these results are projected up to seats in a 125 seat National Assembly, the
Liberals would take a dominant 85 seats, or 22 more than needed for a majority,
up from 65 on Monday, and the PQ would take just 26 seats, down from 51 at the
beginning of the week. CAQ would take 12 seats, up from 7 on Monday, and QS
would take 2 seats.
Francois Legault's approvals high
Francois
Legault significantly outperforms his party, with approval from almost 6-in-10
voters (57%), and his net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is a
very positive +30. Philippe Couillard has the approval of almost half (45%)
which means he performs just as well as his party. His net rating is +4.
Pauline Marois has the steady approval of 3-in-10 (31%), but her net is a
dismal -34.
Few want a referendum
Just
one fifth want a referendum on independence (21%), and fully three quarters do
not (75%). Among Francophones, just one quarter want to go through the referendum
process again (23%). Among PQ voters, 6-in-10 wish to put the independence
question to the people (60%).
One half believe PQ will hold referendum if elected
One
half of voters expect the PQ to hold a referendum if they form the government
(50%), whereas 4-in-10 do not expect this (41%). Three quarters of
non-Francophones (76%) and Liberal voters (79%) think a referendum will be
held, whereas few PQ supporters think this (8%).
“We are
seeing a rare sight, a political party in freefall. From front-runners, with
expectations of a majority, the PQ has transitioned through this campaign into
the opposition-in-waiting, possibly the third party, with nothing but negative
momentum. Their legacy policy, a referendum, is rejected by the vast majority,"
said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
