Liberals lead in 2 Federal by-elections

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Conservatives with huge lead in Macleod

TORONTO, JUNE 19th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among voters in three of the four federal ridings where by-elections will take place on June 30, the Liberals have strong leads in two, while the Conservatives have an insurmountable lead in a third.


Among the 569 voters polled in this riding, more than half will vote for the Liberal candidate, Adam Vaughan (52%), while one third will vote for his NDP counterpart, Joe Cressy (34%). These findings are very similar to those noted last month (May 15 - Vaughan - 54%, Cressy - 31%). The Conservative vote (Ben Sharma, 12% now, 13% then) and Green vote (2% then and now) have not changed. The Liberal vote is common to Gen Y (35 to 44 - 60%) and those in lower income groups ($20K to $40K - 63%). The NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (52%), females (39%), mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 50%). Notably, more than 4-in-10 past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time (44%) and just more than half will vote their own party again (54%).


Among the 562 voters polled in Scarborough-Agincourt, more than half will vote for the Liberal standard-bearer, Arnold Chan (52%), compared to just more than a third who will vote for the Conservative candidate, Trevor Ellis (36%). These results represent a slight widening in the lead for the Liberals (May 15 - Chan - 46%, Ellis - 38%). The NDP (8%), Greens (2%) and other parties (2%) do not contend in this riding. The Liberal vote is characteristic of Gen X (45 to 54 - 57%) and higher income groups ($80K to $100K - 67%). The Conservative vote is common to the oldest (41%), females (40%) and in lower income groups ($20K to $40K - 41%). Of note, more than 4-in-10 past NDP voters (2011) will vote Liberal this time (45%), one fifth will vote Conservative (19%) and just one third will vote for the NDP again (34%).


Among the 508 voters polled in Macleod, close to two thirds will vote Conservative, for John Barlow (61%), while just one tenth will vote either for the Liberal, Dustin Fuller, or the New Democrat, Aileen Burke (11% each). Just fewer than this will vote Green (9%) or for another party (8%). In the month since polled last, little has changed (May 15 - Barlow - 62%, Fuller - 15%). The Conservative vote is typical of the oldest (72%), lower ($20K to $40K - 74%) and higher income groups ($80K to $100K - 71%). The Conservative vote is the "stickiest" in that more past partisans will vote Conservative again (80%) than is the case among Liberals (67%) or New Democrats (60%).

Fort McMurray-Athabasca

Polling was conducted in this riding but adequate sample for detailed analysis was not collected.

These by-elections are proving to be very steady affairs, and no significant changes have happened in a month. We can expect the Liberals to pick up Trinity-Spadina from the NDP, drawing on the strength of their showing in the riding during the provincial election, and they'll hold Scarborough-Agincourt, it appears. A Conservative win in Macleod is a foregone conclusion, of course, but Fort McMurray continues to be a puzzle, as it is a very difficult riding to poll," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.