Adam Vaughan clear leader in Trinity-Spadina
Joe Cressy defeats Christine Innes, other candidates
TORONTO APRIL 22nd, 2014 - In a random sampling of
public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 517 voters in the federal riding
of Trinity-Spadina in downtown Toronto, where a by-election will be held to
replace departed MP Olivia Chow, Liberal hopeful Adam Vaughan has a convincing
lead over the nominated NDP candidate, Joe Cressy, but Liberal prospects
Christine Tabbert and Ryan Davey do not do as well. Christine Innes, a previous
candidate who has been forbidden by the Liberal Party from seeking the
nomination, does poorly against Cressy.
Vaughan with 20 point lead over Cressy
In
a match-up between Adam Vaughan and Joe Cressy, Vaughan wins with one half the
vote (52%) to 3-in-10 for Cressy (31%). The names of the previous federal
candidates were used as placeholders, and neither scores well (Gin Siow,
Conservative - 14%, Rachel Barney, Green - 2%).
Cressy defeats Tabbert
Joe
Cressy takes close to half the vote (45%) when matched with Liberal prospect
Christine Tabbert (33%). Siow (15%) and Barney (5%) aren't particularly
competitive.
Cressy tops Davey
Liberal
hopeful Ryan Davey fares about as well as Tabbert, taking just less than
3-in-10 votes (28%) to close to half for Cressy (46%).
Innes falls to Cressy
In
a match-up with Christine Innes, husband of former riding MP Tony Ianno, Cressy
takes the same proportion of the vote (45%), and Innes gets 3-in-10, like
Tabbert and Davey (28%).
Awareness, approval high for Vaughan
Almost
all voters in the riding know who Adam Vaughan is (84%), while just more than
half are aware of Joe Cressy (58%). They both share very high approval ratings,
however (74% and 77%, respectively). Christine Innes, on the other hand, while
she is well-known (74%), sees the approval of fewer than half (44%). Very few
are aware of Christine Tabbert (10%) or Ryan Davey (9%), but the few who know
of them think well of them (63% approval each).
“In politics, if you can't be the incumbent, the next best
thing is to be famous. Adam Vaughan has deep roots in this city and as a
Liberal, which some forget, and he had years of local exposure on TV. Joe
Cressy is well thought of by those who know him, but not enough people know of
him to counter the personal comfort level most people in the riding have with
Vaughan," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
