Conservatives to take Macleod
TORONTO, JUNE 29th,
2014 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ the evening before
election day among voters in the four federal ridings in which by-elections
will be held June 30, the Liberals are leading by clear margins in three, while
the Conservatives have a strong lead in a fourth.
Trinity-Spadina
Among
the 446 voters polled in Trinity-Spadina, Liberal candidate Adam Vaughan's
considerable lead has declined to just more than half today (45%), compared to
more than half ten days ago (June 19 - 52%). This compares to just more than a
third for NDP candidate, Joe Cressy (35% now, 34% June 19). The Conservative
(11%) and Green candidates (9%) attract about a tenth each. In this riding,
more than one third of past NDP voters (2011) will vote for the Liberals this
time (37%), while just more than half will vote NDP again (59%). Adam Vaughan
attracts more female voters (50%) than male voters (40%), while Joe Cressy has
a gender balance (36% and 35%, respectively).
Scarborough-Agincourt
The
446 voters polled in Scarborough-Agincourt favour Liberal candidate Arnold Chan
by eleven points over Conservative candidate Trevor Ellis (48% to 37%) and this
represents a slight tightening of the race since we last polled (52% to 36%, respectively). The NDP candidate
will take a tenth of the vote (10%) while the Greens will take less (4%).
Macleod
Among
the 406 voters polled in the riding of Macleod, more than half will vote for
the Conservative candidate, John Barlow (54%), compared to just one eighth who
will vote for his Liberal or Green counterparts (16% each). Very few will vote
NDP (4%). This represents a slight tightening of Barlow's considerable lead
since we last polled (June 19, Conservative - 61%, Liberal - 11%, NDP - 11%,
Green 9%). One tenth will vote for another party now (10%) or then (9%).
Fort McMurray-Athabasca
In
Fort McMurray-Athabasca, where 326 voters were polled, the Liberals have a
clear lead over the Conservatives (41% to 33%), while the NDP (13%), Greens
(5%) and other parties (8%) do not contend. This is in contrast to previous
waves of polling (unpublished due to small sample sizes) in which the
Conservatives had the lead.
“If the unimaginable happens, and the Liberals pull out a win
in Fort McMurray, they will have kept one, taken one from the government and
taken one from the opposition. Not a bad record for four little by-elections.
It appears the NDP aren't players in this round," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
