Strong Liberal majority in the cards
In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1624 Canadian
voters, the Liberals have opened up a convincing 16 point lead on the
Conservatives (44% to 28%), while the NDP has ticked downwards to less than a
fifth (18%). This is in comparison with this time last month, when the Liberal
lead was a more modest 8 points (June 18, Liberals - 39%, Conservatives -
31%). Few will vote Bloc Quebecois (5% of total, 20% in Quebec) or Green (3%)
or for any other party (1%). The Liberal vote is strong among Boomers (55 to 64
- 53%), in Atlantic Canada (53%) and Ontario (50%). The Conservative vote is
common to the oldest (35%), males (34%) and Albertans (55%). There is a
significant gender gap among Conservative supporters (34% male, 23% female)
which does not exist with respect to the other two main opposition parties.
Trudeau favourables up, Harper, Mulcair
steady
Justin
Trudeau has the approval of close to half of Canadian voters (46%) and this
represents a slight increase since last month (43%). His net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove) is +9, up from +5 last month. Tom Mulcair has the
approval of 4-in-10 (40%), stable from last month (38%), and his net is at +10,
up from +4. Stephen Harper has the approval of one third (33%), and his net is
a very negative -25.
Trudeau has slight edge as best PM
Justin
Trudeau is seen to be the best Prime Minister by 3-in-10 (30%), up from just
more than a quarter last month (27%). Stephen Harper trails with just more than
a quarter (27%), stable from last month (28%). One eighth see Tm Mulcair as the
best Prime Minister (16%) and this hasn't changed since mid-June.
Just one half expect Harper to run in
election as scheduled
When
presented with a number of scenaria for the federal election scheduled for
October 19, 2015, just one half of voters believe it will take place as
scheduled with Stephen Harper at the head of the Conservative Party (51%),
whereas one seventh believe Stephen Harper will resign before the scheduled
election (14%). One tenth believe either that Harper will call and lead an
earlier election (9%), that he will resign and an earlier election will take
place (7%) or that something else will occur (8%). One tenth have no opinion on
the issue (11%). Thus, fully one fifth
in total (21%) believe the Prime Minister will resign before the next election.
New Democrats (24%) and Liberals (17%) are more likely to predict a scheduled
election without Stephen Harper than are Conservative voters (5%).
“It's interesting to note that both Justin Trudeau and the
Prime Minister poll at about the same level as their parties, which
is usually a good thing, if you're in the lead, or close. Tom Mulcair
significantly outperforms his party, though, by a factor of two, and that's a
worrisome sign. He makes it easy to park a vote yet not commit to supporting
the party in the general election," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne
Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be
reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
