NDP take dramatic lead in Alberta

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NDP take dramatic lead in Alberta

Majority government seen in wake of debate

TORONTO April 24th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 801 Alberta voters the night before and the night of the provincial party leaders’ debate, almost 4-in-10 (38%) will vote NDP in the election called for May 5th, while one quarter (25%) will vote for the Wildrose Party and one fifth will vote PCAA (20%). Few will vote Liberal (7%), Alberta Party (6%) or any other party (5%).

These findings represent a dramatic shift from our last wave of polling on April 10, when the three leading parties were essentially tied (Wildrose - 30%, NDP - 28%, PCAA - 27%).

The NDP vote is common to younger Albertans (25 to 34 - 47%), the very wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 45%), in Edmonton (56%) but not in central (25%) or northern (24%) Alberta. The Wildrose vote is common to southern (36%) and northern (35%) Alberta outside the cities. The PC vote is characteristic of the oldest (27%), the least wealthy (less than $40K - 27%) and in northern Alberta (25%). The NDP are dominant in both Edmonton (56%) and Calgary (30%). Of note, close to 4-in-10 of those who voted PC in the last election will vote NDP this time (38%), as will one tenth of past Wildrose voters (12%) and as many as one half of past Liberal voters (50%).

Slim NDP majority seen

If these results are projected up to an 87 seat Legislature, the NDP would take a 2 seat majority of 46, and the Wildrose Party would take 32. The PCs would take just 6 seats and the Liberals 3.

"The Alberta electorate has once again demonstrated its resistance to expectations. While we were in field during the televised debate, which was dominated by the leader of the NDP, Rachel Notley, we were also in field the day before, with the same results. The New Democrats appear to have cobbled together an unusual coalition of the wealthy, the young, disaffected PCs and half the Liberal party. This may be a recipe for government," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.