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UCP headed for narrow victory
NDP in close second on eve of election
Toronto,
May 28th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum
Poll™ among 1000 Alberta voters
ahead of the May 29th provincial election, half (50.4%) of those who
are decided or leaning are likely to vote for the United Conservative Party
while the majority of others (44.3%) are likely to vote for the NDP. A small
minority support the Green Party (1.6%) or other parties (3.7%).
UCP majority – just barely
We
project 45 seats for the UCP and 42 seats for the NDP. Either party must win at
least 44 seats to form a majority government.
“Danielle
Smith may lead the UCP to victory, but the NDP are not out of the running yet,”
said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "Election day
turnout will be crucial in deciding this race.”
The poll was conducted by
Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response
telephone survey of 1000 randomly selected Alberta residents over the age of 18,
68.6% by cellphone and 31.4% on landlines. The poll was conducted on May 28th,
2023. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3.1%, 19
times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins
of error for subsample and regional results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
This research is not necessarily predictive of
future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. With offices
across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one
of the country’s leading survey research firms. Forum Research follows the CRIC
Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found
here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
