Libs, PCs All Tied Up
in Scarborough-Rouge River
NDP in close 2nd place
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum
Poll™ among 363 voters in the provincial riding of Scarborough-Rouge River two
days before the scheduled by-election in this riding, there is an exact tie
between the Progressive Conservative candidate, Raymond Cho, with just more
than a third of the vote (36%), and the Liberal candidate, Piragal Thiru, with
the same vote share (36%). The NDP candidate, Neethan Shan, comes in a close
second with just less than a quarter of the vote (23%). Few will vote the Green
candidate, Priyan Da Silva (1%).
The PC candidate is the preferred choice of almost half those who disapprove of
the new Ontario sex education curriculum (44%), while the opposite apples to
the Liberal candidate, who has close to half the support of those who support
the curriculum (43%).
Of note, more than one quarter of those who voted Liberal in 2014 will vote PC
this time (26%) and close to a fifth will vote NDP (17%), leaving just one half
of these former Liberal partisans voting the same party this time (54%).
Split opinion on sex education curriculum
Relatively equal proportions of the voters on
Scarborough-Rouge River approve of (39%), disapprove of (36%) or don’t have an
opinion on the new Ontario sex education curriculum (26%). Just one quarter of
PC voters approve (27%), close to half of Liberals approve (46%) and more than
half of New Democrats approve of this curriculum (55%).
“What we see here is a classic Mexican stand-off; the
Liberal and Progressive Conservative candidates have each carved out an equal
sized patch of the popular vote and the hill they’re fighting for is the vote
that swings on the sex education curriculum” said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
