Chow lead narrowing in final days of
campaign
Surge puts Bailão just 9%
behind Chow
Toronto,
June 24th, 2023 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken
by The Forum Poll™ among 1,037 Toronto residents,
Olivia Chow leads the race for mayor with 29% support from decided and leaning
voters. Following an endorsement earlier this week from outgoing mayor John
Tory, Ana Bailão has surged into second place with 20% support. Mark Saunders
has dropped to third although his support is unchanged from the previous week
at 15%. Among all poll respondents, 12% remain undecided with two days to go
before the June 26th election.
2023
Mayoral polling results to date - The Forum Poll™ (Decided/Leaning
Voters)
|
%
|
Apr 25-26
|
May 6-7
|
May 13
|
May 19
|
May 26
|
June 2
|
June 9
|
June 16
|
June 23
|
+/- in last week
|
|
Olivia Chow
|
31
|
33
|
36
|
34
|
34
|
38
|
35
|
32
|
29
|
-3
|
|
Ana Bailao
|
10
|
7
|
7
|
9
|
9
|
8
|
10
|
13
|
20
|
+7
|
|
Mark Saunders
|
14
|
14
|
18
|
12
|
14
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
15
|
0
|
|
Anthony Furey
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
13
|
11
|
-2
|
|
Josh Matlow
|
15
|
14
|
10
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
9
|
9
|
8
|
-1
|
|
Mitzie Hunter
|
7
|
8
|
10
|
10
|
9
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
-1
|
|
Brad Bradford
|
8
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
-1
|
|
Some other candidate
|
15
|
17
|
14
|
16
|
8
|
8
|
10
|
10
|
9
|
0
|
“This
is Chow’s third drop of 3% in support in the last three weeks,” said Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “This suggests she has been hemorrhaging
approximately 0.5% support each day for the last three weeks. While Bailão’s
surge will likely be too little, too late, it does represent the biggest one
week gain for any candidate in the campaign and has clearly cemented Bailao’s
position in second place. One wonders what would have happened if endorsements
for Bailão had occurred a week earlier in the campaign.”
Among
those surveyed, the most important issues in the mayoral election are the cost
of living & inflation (24%) and housing affordability (23%).
The poll was conducted by
Forum Research on June 23rd, with the results based on an
interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,037 randomly selected Toronto
residents over the age of 18, 73% by cellphone and 27% on landlines.
Results based on the
total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and
regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample results
are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.
This research is not
necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one
point in time.
With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms.
Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
