NDP continue to lead
Conservatives, Liberals
NDP minority government in
the cards
TORONTO August 20th, 2015 - In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1473 Canadian voters, more
than a third will vote NDP in the coming federal election (34%), while just
fewer than 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (29%) or Liberal (28%). Few will vote
Green or for the Bloc Quebecois (4% each) or for other parties (1%). These results
are very similar to those noted last week (NDP - 34%, Conservatives - 28%,
Liberals - 27%), so the race may have achieved temporary equilibrium.
NDP lead in Atlantic, Quebec,
BC, tied in Ontario
In Ontario, where elections are won and lost, the three
parties are currently tied (Conservatives - 33%, Liberals - 32%, NDP - 31%),
while in Quebec, the New Democrats dominate (40%), and the Liberals are second
(23%). The Bloc (17%) and the Conservatives (16%) are tied in third place. In
the once- Liberal fortress of Atlantic Canada, the NDP are ahead (39%) and the
Liberals are second (32%). In the Prairies and Alberta, the Conservatives are
dominant (42% and 47%, respectively) while the NDP is a solid second (28% and
27%, respectively). The NDP lead the pack in BC (39%), while Conservatives and
Liberals are close in second place (24% and 28%, respectively).
NDP vote is youngest,
Conservative vote oldest; strong gender bias
The NDP vote attracts the youngest (under 35 - 44%), while
the Conservative vote is common to the oldest (65+ - 41%). Mid age groups are
partial to the Liberals (35 to 54 - 34%). Males favour the Conservatives (36%)
over females (24%), while females favour the NDP (17% males, 35% female). The
Liberal vote is more gender balanced (38% and 32%, respectively).
One quarter of past Liberals
will vote for NDP
About one tenth of past Conservative voters will support the
Liberals (12%) or NDP (13%) this time, while as many as one quarter of past
Liberals are voting NDP in 2015 (24%). About one sixth of past New Democrats
will vote Liberal (16%). Very few Liberals or New Democrats will vote
Conservative this time around (5% and 4%, respectively). This effectively puts
to rest the concept of the “Blue Liberals” who will vote Conservative to prevent
an NDP victory.
Conservatives are most
committed supporters
Three quarters of Conservative voters are strong supporters
of the party (77%), as are two thirds of Liberals (63%), while just more than
one half of those who intend to vote NDP claim to be committed to the party
(55%).
Conservative Party is second
choice of very few
Fewer than one tenth of voters say the Conservative Party is
their second choice (8%), and this implies their vote ceiling is just more than
a third (37% in total), scarcely enough for a majority. The Liberals and the
NDP, on the other hand, are the second choice of a quarter each (25% and 23%,
respectively), which means the NDP vote ceiling is close to 6-in-10 (59%) and
the Liberal vote ceiling is more than half (51% in total). A substantial
minority of Liberals and New Democrats choose the Green Party second (17% and
18%, respectively).
Almost half will never vote
Conservative
Close to one half of voters say they will never vote
Conservative (45%), and this is compared to less than a third of this
proportion that says this of the Liberals (13%) or the NDP (14%). Liberals and
New Democrats are quite insistent about this (56% and 71% respectively), but so
are one tenth of past Conservatives (12%). Conservatives, on the other hand,
are likely to never vote for both the Liberals (30%) or the New Democrats (40%).
NDP minority government seen
If these results are projected up to the 338 seat House of
Commons, the NDP would form a minority government with 133 seats, 37 fewer than
required for a majority, while the Conservatives would take 10 fewer seats, at
123. The Liberals would hold the balance of power with 79 seats, the Bloc would
seat 2 members and the Greens would retain their leader’s seat.
Mulcair with solid lead as
best PM
Mulcair’s lead in the Best Prime Minister stakes has
increased (from 25% to 29%), while Stephen Harper’s score has remained stable
(25% to 24%) as has Trudeau’s (23% to 21%). Few pick Elizabeth May (9%) or
Gilles Duceppe (4%) on this measure, and close to one tenth think none of them
can do the job (7%).
NDP now expected to win
election by modest margin
One third of voters now expect the NDP to win the election
(32%), compared to just less than 3-in-10 who think the Conservatives will be
victorious (28%). This is a change from last week, when Conservatives and New
Democrats were tied on this measure (30% each). Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are
still seen to be the eventual victors by about one fifth (22% last week, 20%
this week). This tends to be a lagging measure, following vote intention by a
week or two. This would indicate that the NDP lead has stabilized for now.
Trudeau's favourables up
sharply
Justin Trudeau has seen his approval increase from less than
4-in-10 two weeks ago (August 2 - 38%) to close to half this week (46%), and
his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) has increased from a
negative -4 to a positive +9 this week. Tom Mulcair continues to enjoy the
approval of one half of voters (50% now, 49% two weeks ago) and his net is up
to +26 from +20. Stephen Harper still has the approval of just fewer
than3-in-10 (28%, similar to 29% two weeks ago) and his net favourable score has
declined from -33 to -37.
“It appears the NDP
are settling nicely into first place, and expectations of victory, usually the
last measure to shift, are in their court now. It should be noted, however,
that Justin Trudeau has performed magic with his approval ratings since the
election writs were drawn up, and this must give the New Democrats pause," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
