NDP maintains strong lead
Liberals tied with
Conservatives in second
TORONTO September 10th, 2015 - In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1308 Canadian voters
in the days immediately after the Labour Day weekend, when increased attention
is paid to the federal election campaign, the NDP maintains its lead of well
more than a third of voters (36% this week and last), while the Liberals (29%)
and Conservatives (28%) are tied in second place. Very few will vote Green or
Bloc Quebecois (3% each) or for other parties (1%). These findings represent a
rebound for the Conservatives from last week (24%) and the week before (23%).
In the same time frame, the Liberals have lost vote share (from 32% last week).
NDP lead in Quebec, Ontario
and BC; tied in prairies
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have regained their
dominance (53%) while the NDP is in second (26%) and the Conservatives lag
(18%). In Quebec, the NDP lead (45%), the Conservatives and Liberals are tied
(22% and 21%, respectively) and the Bloc lags (10%). In the crucial
battleground of Ontario, the NDP has a slight lead (34%) over the Conservatives
and Liberals (31% each). In the prairies, the Conservatives (35%) and the NDP
(34%) are tied, and the Liberals lag (27%). In Fortress Alberta, the federal
Conservatives still lead (43%) and the NDP (28%) and Liberals (25%) vie for
second place. The NDP leads comfortably in BC (37%) while the Conservatives
(28%) and Liberals (27%) are tied.
Each perty’s voters in flux
Each party stands to lose between a quarter and a third of
its 2011 vote, as one sixth of past Conservative voters will support the
Liberals this time (16%) and one tenth will support the NDP (12%). In turn, one
fifth of 2011 Liberals are voting NDP this time (20%) and one sixth of past New
Democrats will vote Liberal this time (15%). Very few voters will switch to the
Conservative support is
Seven-in-ten Conservative voters say they are strong party
supporters (70%), whereas just more than half of Liberals (55%) and New
Democrats (56%) say ithis
Gender imbalance in both
Conservative and Liberal vote
Males are more likely to vote Conservative (32%) than are
females (25%), whereas the opposite applies to Liberals (31% female, 26% male).
There is little imbalance in the NDP vote. The Conservative vote is common to
older males, the Liberal vote is characteristic of mid aged females and the NDP
vote is common to the youngest in the lowest income brackets.
NDP minority government in
If these results are projected up to seats in the newly
allocated 338 seat House, the NDP would take a minority of 139 seats, 31 fewer
than required for a majority. The Conservatives would capture 113 seats, the
Liberals 85, the Greens would seat their leader and no other party would be
NDP expected to win
In this predictive measure, one third of voters expect the
NDP to win the election (33%) and this is just fewer then the proportion who
will vote for them. In turn, about one quarter expect the Conservatives (26%)
or Liberals (24%) to be triumphant.
Mulcair seen as best Prime
Tom Mulcair is seen to make the best Prime Minister (31%),
but Stephen Harper has recovered ground on this measure and is not far behind
(25%). Justin Trudeau lags (22%).
Leader approvals stable
Tom Mulcair has the approval of half the voters (48%) and
his net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +19.
Justin Trudeau’s approval is just lower (45%) and his net is a respectable +9.
Stephen Harper continues to have the approval of about 3-in-10 voters (29%, and
his net score is a very negative -36. These findings have not changed
significantly since last week.
Conservative, NDP majorities
are desired outcomes
One fifth of voters would like to see either a Conservative
or an NDP majority (20% each), while just fewer would like to see an
NDP-Liberal coalition (15%) or a Liberal majority (14%). Half these proportions
will entertain Conservative or NDP minorities (8% each) or a Liberal minority
“After a surge of
enthusiasm for the two opposition parties last week, and a bad week for the
government, it appears voters are reconsidering their options. It may be that
underlying opposition to accepting Syrian refugees has led to increased support
for the Conservatives. This is a very volatile electorate, as we have seen, and
there is more than a normal election’s worth of campaigning left to go, so any
number of things could happen,"
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
or at (416) 960-9603.