Winner of Thursday’s debate; none
of the above
Conservatives lead in voter
preference
TORONTO September 20th, 2015 - In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 922 Canadian voters
the evening after the second leaders’ debate, more than half saw or heard
something of the debate (56%), and among these, the clear winner was “none of
them” (30%), followed by a tie between Stephen Harper (23%) and Justin Trudeau
(22%). Tom Mulcair trails on this measure (18%).
Conservatives continue to
lead
The Conservatives have one third of the vote (33%), compared
to just fewer than 3-in-10 votes for the Liberals and the NDP (29% each). Few
will vote Green or for the Bloc Quebecois (4% each) or for other parties (1%).
More than one quarter of those who voted NDP in 2011 will vote Liberal this
time (26%) and the reverse is true for those who voted Liberal last time, and
will vote NDP this election (28%). Just more than one tenth of past
Conservatives will vote Liberal this time (13%) but few New Democrats or
Liberals from 2011 will be voting Conservative.
Conservative minority seen
If these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of
Commons, the Conservatives would form a minority government with 145 seats, 25
fewer than required for a majority, while the Liberals and the New Democrats
would split the rest of the House with 97 and 95 seats, respectively. The Greens
would seat their leader, and no other parties would be represented.
Conservatives expected to win
by slim margin
Voters expect the Conservatives to win the election (31%)
more than they do the New Democrats (27%), a reversal of findings in recent
weeks on this measure. The Liberals are not seen to be the victors by as many
(23%).
Stephen Harper seen to be
best PM
After a number of weeks where Tom Mulcair was seen to be the
best potential Prime Minister, Stephen Harper now occupies that spot (28%) and
the other two leaders are matched at about one quarter of the votes (24% each).
Debate changed some Liberal
minds
Of those who saw or heard the debate, one sixth say it made
them change their mind about their vote (14%) but this increases to one fifth
among Liberals (19%).
Mulcair, Trudeau see their
favourables drop
Tom Mulcair has seen his approval drop from one half (50%)
at the beginning of the week, to just more than 4-in-10 now (42%), while Justin
Trudeau’s approval has also declined (from 46% to 43%). Stephen Harper’s
approval has stayed stable at about one third (32%).
“This development
shows the power of a long campaign, when the lead switches as often as it has,
it’s inevitable every party will have the advantage at one point. The Prime
Minister has had a good week, and his calm performance in an otherwise boisterous
debate seems to have helped him,"
said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
