Cardy's favourables up sharply, Gallant's down
11th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the
Forum Poll™ among 732 New Brunswick voters 11 days before the September 22
provincial election, just more than 4-in-10 will vote Liberal (42%), compared
to about a third who will vote Progressive Conservative (32%), for a 10 point
lead in favour of the Liberals. This stands in contrast to our last poll two
weeks ago, when the spread was 15 points for the Liberals (August 26, Liberals
- 46%, Progressive Conservatives - 31%). The New Democrats have just more than
a tenth of the vote (13%), stable from two weeks ago (15%). Less than a tenth
will vote Green (6%) or for another party (7%). Of note, one quarter of past
Progressive Conservative voters will vote Liberals this time (25%), as will
more than 4-in-10 New Democrats (42%). The Liberal vote is the
"stickiest" in that more past Liberals will vote their party (78%)
than will either Progressive Conservatives (55%) or New Democrats (34%).
Liberals to take two thirds of Assembly seats
the new 49 seat Legislative Assembly, the Liberals are projected to take 34
seats, down from 44 two weeks ago, while the Progressive Conservatives are
projected to capture 15 Assembly seats, up from 5 previously.
Two thirds approve of downtown revitalization capital projects
than 3-in-10 approve of Brian Gallant now (29%), down from more than a third
two weeks ago (34%), and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove)
has declined from 0 to -16. Dominic Cardy, on the other hand, has seen his
approval improve from a third (34%) to close to 4-in-10 now (38%), and his net
has improved from +4 to +14. Premier Alward has the approval of far fewer (26%,
stable from 27%) and his net favourable is a dismal -37, down from -33. As
such, both Alward and Gallant poll slightly behind their parties, while Cardy
polls far ahead of his personally.
Gallant and Alward
matched on all attributes except ethics; Cardy lags
When the three
party leaders are tested for which would be best at a selection of tasks, Brian
Gallant and David Alward are matched on handling the provincial budget (Alward
- 26%, Gallant - 27, Cardy 18%), creating jobs and growth (28%, 31%, 12%
respectively), handling relations with Ottawa (30%, 30%, 13% respectively),
cutting government waste (22%, 23%, 22% respectively). On ethics in government,
Gallant leads (21%, 28%, 17%) as he does slightly on having the best vision for
New Brunswick (26%, 30%, 15%).
“It appears some
of the shine has come off Brian Gallant's bandwagon, which is inevitably the
case when you have such a strong lead going into the election. It's interesting
to note that he and the Premier are matched on most leadership attributes
except ethics and vision, so we must assume these are the factors motivating
his lead in the polls" said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com or at (416) 960-9603.