Forum is most accurate with an average deviation of 2.0%
TORONTO, DECEMBER 2ND, 2015 – In a
field of four polling firms, the Forum Poll™ was the most accurate in
predicting the outcome of the 49th Newfoundland and Labrador general
election of November 30, 2015. Forum’s Interactive Voice Response (IVR) polling
methodology again proves to be a precise tool for measuring public opinion,
accurately predicting that the Liberals would form a majority government.
The Forum Poll predicted a finish of 54% for
the Liberals (actual share – 57%), 30% for PC (actual share – 31%), and 15% for
NDP (actual share – 12%), predicting results with an average deviation of 2.0.
“Once
again, Forum’s IVR polling methodology has proven itself to be the most
accurate means of polling public opinion, and it allowed us to accurately
predict the Liberal majority outcome,” said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
|
%
|
PC
|
Liberal
|
NDP
|
Other
|
Deviation
|
|
Actual Results
|
|
30
|
57
|
12
|
1
|
-
|
|
Forum Research Inc. (n=1,014)
|
Nov. 29, 2015
|
31
|
54
|
15
|
0
|
2.00
|
|
Abacus Data (n=700)
|
Nov. 22-24, 2015
|
22
|
64
|
13
|
1
|
4.00
|
|
Corporate Research Associates (n=800)
|
Nov. 5-22, 2015
|
22
|
67
|
10
|
1
|
5.00
|
|
MQO
|
Nov. 5-11, 2015
|
17
|
74
|
9
|
0
|
8.50
|
Methodology
Forum only used the final election prediction numbers published by each organization
prior to Election Day.
To calculate the average deviation Forum Research compared survey
results per party to actual election results. The deviation per party was then
averaged to determine overall accuracy in predicting the election.
