One half of Canadians would vote for Liberals
Trudeau’s popularity stays high
February 18th, 2016 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken
by the Forum Poll™ among 1406 Canadian voters, fully one half would vote
Liberal if an election were held today (49%), and this is up slightly from the
last time we polled (December, 2015 - 46%). In comparison, one third will vote
Conservative (32%, stable from December), and as few as one tenth will vote for
the NDP (10% now, 13% in December). Very few would vote Green (5%) or for the
Bloc Quebecois (3%).
are most popular among the oldest voters (55+ - 52%), females (54%) and mid
income groups ($20K to $60K - 53%). The Conservative vote is common to mid age
groups (35 to 54 - 36%), males (37%) and to mid income groups ($60K to $80K -
41%) and the wealthiest (39%). The NDP voter is especially likely to be younger
(Under 35 - 16%) and the least wealthy (often a proxy for age - 16%). Of note,
3-in-10 NDP voters from the election in October would vote Liberal today (31%),
as would one tenth of 2015 Conservatives (11%).
Liberals are dominant in every region except the prairies and Alberta. In the
Atlantic provinces, two thirds will vote Liberal (69%), followed by one fifth
or fewer for the Conservatives (19%) or the NDP (10%). In Quebec, the Liberals
lead with more than half the vote (54%), while one fifth or fewer supports the
Conservatives (17%), the Bloc (13%) or the NDP (11%). In Ontario, more than
half support the Liberals (51%) to about a third for the Conservatives (35%)
and less than a tenth for the NDP (8%). In the prairies, the Liberals and the
Conservatives are essentially tied (42% to 40%), while the NDP languishes in
their birth region (12%). In Alberta, the Conservatives are firmly preferred by
6-in-10 (60%) to just one quarter for the Liberals (26%). Few support the
federal NDP (7%). In BC, close to half will vote Liberal (48%), to one third
for the Conservatives (33%) and about one sixth for the NDP (14%).
Trudeau with high approval, among New Democrats
Minister Justin Trudeau has the approval of close to 6-in-10 Canadians (57%),
stable from December. His net favourability (approval minus disapproval) is an
extremely positive +23. While the Prime Minister’s approval is almost universal
among Liberals (91%), it is also characteristic of two thirds of New Democrats
(69%). Conservative interim leader Rona Ambrose has the approval of just more
than a quarter (28%) and her net favourable is a relatively neutral -3. As many
as 4-in-10 don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. Her approval rating
among Conservative voters is one half (52%). Tom Mulcair has the approval of
just more than one third (36%). including three quarters of NDP voters (74%).
Ambrose’s approvals have not changed since December, 2015, but Mulcair’s have
declined slightly (from 41%).
One half see Trudeau as best choice for
to one half see Justin Trudeau as the best person for his job (47%), compared
to just one tenth for Ambrose (12%), Mulcair (8%) or Elizabeth May (7%). As
many as one quarter of New Democrats see Trudeau as the best PM (25%), and
close to 4-in-10 of those who voted NDP in 2015 do so as well (38%).
Two thirds satisfied with election
thirds of Canadians are satisfied with the outcome of the October, 2015 election
(64%), and more than a third are “very satisfied” (35%). Satisfaction is
highest among Liberals of course (96% overall, 69% “very”), but three quarters
of NDP voters are satisfied (72%), and one fifth are “very satisfied” (20%).
Even among Conservative voters, one sixth are satisfied (15%).
Liberal super-supermajority if election
the results shown above are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the
Liberals would capture more than 7-in 10 seats (240) to just 91 for the Conservatives,
no more than 6 for the New Democrats and one seat for the Greens.
“The Liberal honeymoon shows no signs of
abating, and we have to stop calling it that, as it has gone on far too long to
be a brief post electoral crush. It has now been 100 days since the Trudeau
government took power, and the Prime Minister has the kind of electoral support
and approval that would make a despot blush,” said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com
or at (416) 960-9603.