Progressive
Conservatives double up other parties
Pallister twice as likely as Selinger to be seen as the best
premier
TORONTO March 14th
- In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 930 Manitoba voters a
month before the election, close to one half will vote for the Progressive
Conservatives (46%), which is twice as many as will vote either Liberal (23%)
or NDP (22%). Few will vote Green (8%) or for other parties (1%).
The
Progressive Conservative vote is characteristic of boomers (55 to 64 - 51%),
the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 51%), outside Winnipeg (52%) and among the least
educated (59%). The Liberal vote is common to the least wealthy (31%), in
Winnipeg (26%), among mothers (29%) and among the best educated (post grad -
26%). The NDP vote id characteristic of the youngest (26%), the least wealthy
and the wealthy (less than $20K and $80K to $100K - 26% each), in Winnipeg
(25%) and among the best educated (27%).
10 seat majority seen for Progressive Conservatives
If
the results shown above are projected up to the 57 seat Manitoba Legislature,
the Progressives would command a majority of 39, 10 more than required for
control of the house, while the NDP would take 13 seats and the Liberals would
take 5.
Pallister, Selinger less popular than their parties
Premier
Selinger has the approval of fewer than one fifth of voters (19%), and his net
favourability score (approve minus disapprove) is a truly awful -44. Brian
Pallister, despite his party’s commanding position in the polls, has the
approval of just one third (35%), and his net score is a neutral +1. Rana
Bokhari has the approval of just one fifth (21%), but most voters don’t know
enough about her to have an opinion (42%), leaving her with a net
score of -15.
Twice as many see Pallister as best Premier as Selinger
The
plurality, 3-in-10, see Brian Pallister as the best Premier of the three main
party leaders (30%), and this is twice as many as say this of Greg Selinger,
the incumbent (14%). Just one tenth see Rana Bokhari as a good Premier (10%).
As many as a quarter of voters think none of these will do the job well (26%).
“Despite his party’s substantial lead in this poll, it appears Mr.
Pallister lacks the personal appeal that would allow him to match his party’s
performance. On the other hand, Premier Selinger has about the same, although
diminished appeal as his party. Rana Bokhari has yet to make the kind of
impression which will allow her to take advantage of her party’s current parity
with the incumbents," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
