Federal Liberals up, Conservatives down in latest poll
Wide supermajority seen, Trudeau
favourables up
TORONTO
April 6th, 2016 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the
Forum Poll™ among 1455 Canadian voters, just more than one half will vote
Liberal if the federal election were held today (51%), while just more than a
quarter will vote Conservative (28%) and about one tenth will vote NDP (12%).
Few will vote for the Bloc Quebecois (6%), the Green Party (3%) or anyone else
(1%).
These
results are an improvement for the Liberals (up 5 points from 46% in March) and
a decline for the Conservatives (down 6 points from 34%). The NDP vote has
stayed stable since last month (March - 12%).
In
Atlantic Canada, the Liberals dominate (71%), and the other two parties draw
barely a tenth of the vote (Conservatives - 12%, NDP - 11%). In Quebec, one
half will vote Liberal (48%), while about one half this proportion will vote
for the Bloc (23%). The other two parties are just over one tenth in the
popular vote (Conservatives and NDP - 14% each). In Ontario, half the voters
will support the Liberals (52%), while about 3-in-10 opt for the Conservatives
(29%). The NDP does no better than it does nationally (11%). In the prairies,
the Conservatives (42%) and the Liberals (40%) are tied, and the NDP has a
tenth of the vote (11%). It is only in Alberta that the Liberals fall behind
the Conservatives (33% to 58%), and it is here the NDP posts it’s lowest total
(7%). In BC, one half will vote Liberal (49%), while 3-in-10 will vote
Conservative (31%) and just more than a tenth will support the New Democrats
(13%).
It
should be noted that, of those who voted NDP as recently as the 2015 election,
4-in-10 will now vote Liberal (39%), while just one half will vote the same
party again (NDP - 53%). Meanwhile, The Conservatives and the Liberals retain
their 2015 vote (88% and 86%, respectively).
Wide supermajority seen in House of
Commons
If these results are projected up to the
338 seat House of Commons, the Liberals would claim 75% of the sets (256), to
just 74 for the Conservatives. The NDP would capture no more than 5 seats, the
Bloc 2 and the Green Party would retain their single seat.
Trudeau favourables up, Mulcair’s down
slightly
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has the
approval of close to 6-in-10 Canadian voters (58%), just greater than his
party’s share of voter preference (51%). His net favourable score (approve
minus disapprove) is a very positive +25, up from +19 last month. In the same
time, his approval has improved 4 points (from 54%). Approval of the Prime
Minister is almost universal among Liberals (93%), but is also characteristic
of more than one half of New Democrats (54%). Even one tenth of Conservatives admire
the Prime Minister (12%).
Rona
Ambrose has the approval of just more than a quarter of voters (28%), similar
to last month’s finding (29%). Her net score is a relatively neutral -3. It
must be pointed out that the plurality of voters don’t know enough about Ms
Ambrose to have an informed opinion (41%). One half of Conservative voters
approve of their Interim Leader (54%), but just 4-in-10 card-carrying members
of the party approve (42%). Ambrose’s approval exactly matches her party’s
share of the voter preference (28%).
Tom
Mulcair has the approval of one third (32%), down slightly from last month
(March - 35%), and his net favourable score is a relatively neutral -4 (down
from +1 last month). Six-in-ten NDP supporters approve of Mulcair (61%) and
this may be an indication he will have difficulty renewing his leadership at
the upcoming NDP Convention. Mulcair is about 3 times as popular as his party.
Trudeau more likely now to be seen as
best PM
Close to one half of voters think Justin
Trudeau makes the best Prime Minister (47%), similar to his party’s share of
the popular vote preference (51%), and this represents an increase of 4 points
on this measure since March (43%). This level of support is 4 times greater
than that shown for either Rona Ambrose (11%), or Tom Mulcair (10%). Close to
one fifth think none of these people would make the best Prime Minister (17%).
Of note, just one half of NDP voters see Tom Mulcair as their preferred Prime
Minister (47%), while one quarter would prefer Justin Trudeau (26%). Support
for Rona Ambrose among Conservative voters is tepid (41%).
High satisfaction with election outcome
still the rule
In total, two thirds of Canadian voters are
satisfied with the outcome of the 2015 federal election (64%), and more than a
third are “very satisfied” (36%). Satisfaction is almost universal among
Liberal voters, of course (96%), while it is also characteristic of two thirds
of New Democrats (66%). Two thirds of Liberals are very satisfied (66%), while
one fifth of New Democrats are (20%).
“It
appears as though the Trudeau honeymoon is back on again, after some minor
slippage last month. Change doesn’t occur in a vacuum, so it may be the
questions Tom Mulcair is facing this week about his leadership of the NDP have
had the effect of depressing his favourability, and that of his party, while
elevating the Liberals’ by comparison. Both Rona Ambrose and Justin Trudeau are
performing personally at about the same level as their respective parties,
which is strategically advantageous, but Mulcair is running ahead of his party
in popularity and this can be difficult to manage electorally,” said Forum Research
President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
