Liberals With 24 Point Lead Today
Conservatives tumble; NDP
would lose party status
In a random sampling of
public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1429 Canadian voters, the
Liberals would attract almost twice as many votes as the Conservatives if an
election were held today, with a total of more than half the vote (52%) to just
more than a quarter for the Conservatives (28%). The NDP would achieve a tenth
of the vote (11%), and very few would vote Green (3%), Bloc Quebecois (5%) or
for any other party (1%).
This is in contrast to
last month, when the Liberal tally was slightly lower (June 8 - 49%) and the
Conservative vote was higher (32%). The NDP vote has stayed stable (June 8 -
The Liberals are dominant
nationally, with a majority vote in every region except Alberta. In Atlantic
Canada, they lead (55%), the Conservatives are second (29%) and the NDP doesn’t
place (11%). In Quebec, Liberals own half the vote (52%), to about a fifth for
the Bloc (18%) and about half that for the Conservatives (13%) and the NDP
10%). In Ontario, The Liberals have half the vote (53%), the Conservatives a
third (33%) and the NDP a tenth (11%). In the prairies, significantly, the
Liberals have more than half the vote (55%) to a third for the Conservatives
(32%) and about a tenth for the NDP (12%) in their birthplace. In Alberta, it
is the Conservatives who get the majority of votes (55%), while more than a
third go to the Liberals (36%). The NDP do not compete here (4%). In BC, the
Liberals’ lead is the largest (58%) compared to the Conservatives (23%), while
the NDP do better than elsewhere (15%).
More than a tenth of those
who voted Conservative in the recent election would vote Liberal if another
were held today (13%) and as many as 4-in-10
2015 New Democrats would vote Liberal (41%). Virtually all 2015 Liberals
will vote the same way again (90%).
Liberals would take more than
80% of seats in a “hypermajority”
If these results are projected
up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take more than 80% (278
seats) to just 55 for the Conservatives and as few as 5 for the NDP. No other
party, including, for the first time since we have polled, the Green Party,
would seat a member. Of course, with 5 seats, the NDP would cease to be an
Trudeau’s popularity up
sharply, Ambrose, Mulcair down
Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau has the approval of more than 6-in-10 voters (62%), and this is up
sharply since last moth (June 8 - 57%). His net favourabilty rating (approve
minus disapprove) has increased sharply from a stellar +24 to a stratospheric
+33. Trudeau has almost universal approval from Liberals (95%).
Rona Ambrose has the
approval of 3-in-10 (31%), down slightly from last month (June 8 - 34%), but
her net score has remained stable at a barely favourable +7. Ambrose has the
approval of 6-in-10 Conservative voters (58%).
Tom Mulcair has seen his
approval slide as well (from 34% in June to 31% now), and his net score is a
negative -5. He has the approval of about 6-in-10 of his party’s voters (61%).
One half see Trudeau as best
PM, second is “none of these”
The leading choice for
best Prime Minister is the incumbent, Justin Trudeau (49%) with half the vote.
The next largest proportion of voters selects “none of these” (19%). Rona
Ambrose attracts about one tenth of the vote (13%) as does Tom Mulcair (9%).
While 4-in-10 New Democrats see Mulcair as the best PM (44%) as many as 3-in-10
see Justin Trudeau in this role (28%).
“The Liberals apparently
can’t set a foot wrong, and they’re enjoying stratospheric levels of support
usually seen only in the days immediately following a landslide election. But
here in Canada, the landslide is going on and on and on" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
or at (416) 960-9603.