Federal Liberals Maintain Majority
Advantage
Would win 7-in-10 seats if
election held today
The federal NDP would take
one tenth of the vote (11%), and the Greens (4%) and the Bloc Quebecois (5%)
about half this number. These levels of support are similar to those observed
last month (August 6, Liberals - 50%, Conservatives - 31%, NDP - 10%).
The Liberals lead
decisively in every region except Alberta and the prairies. In Atlantic Canada,
they take 7-in-10 votes (70%), to about one tenth for either the Conservatives
(14%) or the NDP 11%). In Quebec, the Liberals have half the vote (49%), the
Bloc Quebecois has a fifth (21%) and the NDP (13%) and Conservatives (11%)
split the rest. In Ontario, where elections are won and lost, the Liberals have
almost half the vote (47%), the Conservatives have more than a third (37%) and
the NDP a tenth (11%). In the prairies, the Conservatives have a slight lead
(46%) over the Liberals (41%) and the NDP do not contend (7%). In Alberta, the
Conservatives draw more than half the vote (53%) to about a third for the
Liberals (35%) and less than a tenth for the NDP (8%). In BC, the Liberals have
half the vote (51%), the Conservatives 3-in-10 (29%) and the NDP more than a
tenth (13%).
Liberals see a 70% majority
in the House
If these results were
projected up to seats in the House, the Liberals would take 238, or 70%, if the
election were held today. The Conservatives would earn 87 seats, the NDP 8, the
Bloc 4 and the Greens a single seat.
Trudeau approval ticks
downward, others steady
Prime Minister Trudeau has
the approval of just more than half the electorate (55%) and his net favourable
score (approve minus disapprove) is +19. This is in contrast to last month,
when his approval stood at 6-in-10 (60%) and his net was a much higher +30. He
has the approval of virtually all Liberals (93%) and one half of New Democrats
(51%).
Rona Ambrose has the
approval of 3-in-10 voters (30%), and her net is a relatively neutral +4. This
is due to her high “don’t knows” (45%) from those who are too unfamiliar with
her to deliver an opinion. Last month, her approvals was also 3-in-10 (31%) and
her net score was similar (+6). Just more than one half of Conservative voters
approve her performance (55%).
Tom Mulcair has the
approval of 3-in-10 voters (31%) and his net score is -2. This is similar to
last month (32%, -5). Mulcair has two thirds approval among members of his own party (64%).
Close to half see Justin
Trudeau as best PM
Close to half the
electorate think that Justin Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister (46%),
down slightly from last month (50%). In second place is “none of these” (17%),
followed by Rona Ambrose 13%) and Tom Mulcair (8%), Elizabeth May (7%) and
Rheal Fortin (1%). Virtually all Liberals see Trudeau as best PM (85%), as do
3-in-10 New Democrats (30%). Just a third of New Democrats see Mulcair as the
best Prime Minister (32%).
“After a week in which he
was travelling in China, the Prime Minister’s vote share is down slightly, as
is his approval, although both are high in comparison with his competitors.
This will be the effect of hands-on leadership; a bit of slippage unaccompanied
by increases in vote share or approval for the other two leaders" said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
