Gap Between Federal
Liberals and Conservatives Closes Slightly
Liberal majority seat count seen to decrease
In a random sampling
of public opinion among 1326 Canadian voters, just less than half will vote
Liberal if the federal election were held today (47%), and this is stable from
earlier this month (September 8 - 48%). About one third will vote Conservative
(34%) and this is up since our last poll (September 8 - 30%). The New Democrats
would take just less than a tenth of the vote (9%), the Greens less than this
(3%) and the Bloc Quebecois about the same (6%).
The Liberals lead
decisively in every region except Alberta. In Atlantic Canada, they have well
more than half the vote (59%), while the Conservatives have a third (32%) and
the NDP do not contend (3%). In Quebec, the Liberals have almost half the vote
(47%), and the Bloc (21%) and Conservatives (18%) are tied for the other half.
The NDP is at about a tenth of the vote (9%). In Ontario, half the vote is the
Liberals’ (48%), while the Conservatives take about 4-in-10 votes (39%). The
NDP are at a tenth (9%). In the prairies, the Liberals have well more than half
the vote (56%), compared to one third for the Conservatives (33%) and a tenth
or so for the NDP (8%). In Alberta, the Conservatives lead (58%), followed by
the Liberals 28%) and about a tenth for the NDP (9%). In BC, half the vote goes
to the Liberals (47%), a third to the conservatives (34%) and the NDP post
their best result with more than a tenth (13%).
Of note, one third of
those who voted for the NDP in 2015 will vote Liberal this time around (35%).
The same is the case with the Greens (36%).
Liberal majority seen to be slightly smaller
If these results are
projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take a
majority of 65%, or 219 seats, 49 more than required for this majority. The
Conservatives would take 111 seats, the NDP just 7 and the Green Party one
seat.
Leader approvals stable
Justin Trudeau has
the approval of more than half the electorate (54%), and his net favourable
score (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +19. This is very similar to
earlier this month (55%), and his net was also +19. He has the approval of
almost all Liberals (92%), and about one half of New Democrats (49%) and Greens
(45%).
Rona Ambrose has
approval from 3-in-10 (31%) and her net score is a slightly positive +5. This
is very similar to her approvals in the early part of the month (30%, +4). She
has the approval of just more than half the Conservative voter base (55%).
Tom Mulcair’s
approval is also stable at one third (32%) and a net score of -3, which
compares to his approval earlier in the month of 31% and -2. He has the
approval of just more than one half his party (56%), down from two thirds last
time we polled (64%).
Justin Trudeau makes the best PM
Just more than
4-in-10 see Justin Trudeau as the best to hold the job he occupies (44%), down
slightly from earlier in the month (46%), and the month before that (50%). One
fifth say none of the leaders is fit for the job (19%), and just more than a
tenth select Rona Ambrose (13%). Fewer than a tenth would entrust the job to
Tom Mulcair (8%).
“We are seeing a
very slow but steady reversion to the mean here, where the burden of governing
eventually accumulates enough negative energy to level even the most
stratospheric of political fortunes" said Forum Research
President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
