Federal Liberals Lead;
Conservatives Cede to NDP
Liberals on track for more
than a two thirds majority
TORONTO, October 13th
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1384
Canadian voters, one half will vote Liberal if the election were held today
(49%), and this stable from last month (September 22 - 47%). The Conservatives have
a 3-in-10 share of the vote (30%), down from last month (34%), while the NDP
have increased their vote share at the Conservatives’ expense (from 9% in
September to 12% now). Few will vote for the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or the Greens
(4%). Of note, one tenth of those who voted for the Conservatives in the
federal election last year will vote Liberal today (10%), while 4-in-10 2015
New Democrats will too (40%).
More than two thirds majority
If these results are
projected up to seats in the House, the Liberals would take 240 seats, or 71%
of them, while the Conservatives would take 83 and the NDP just 14. The Green
Party would keep its single seat.
Liberal Leader approvals
Justin Trudeau has the
approval of more than half (56%, stable from 54% in September)), and a net
favourable score (approve minus disapprove) of +20. He has the approval of
virtually all Liberals (92%) and of one half of New Democratic voters (49%).
Rona Ambrose has the
approval of 3-in-10 (30%, stable from 31% in September) and her net is a
neutral +3. She has the approval of close to 6-in-10 Conservative supporters
(56%), less than a quarter of Liberals (22%) and about one sixth of New
Tom Mulcair has the
approval of more than a third of voters (35%, up slightly from 32% in
September) and his net is a neutral +1. He has the approval of just more than
one half of New Democrats (56%), and about a third or less of Liberals (37%)
and Conservatives (23%).
Trudeau seen to make best
PM, even among New Democrats
Close to one half see
Justin Trudeau as the best choice for the job he holds (46%), followed by just
less than one fifth who think none of the leaders is up to the task (17%). Rona
Ambrose is the choice of about one tenth (13%), while fewer would select
Elizabeth May (7%) or Tom Mulcair (9%). Of note, fewer than one half of
Conservative voters see Rona Ambrose as the best Prime Minister (43%) and less than
half of New Democrats see Tom Mulcair as the best PM (38%). One quarter of New
Democrats see Justin Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (27%), while virtually
all Liberals support Justin Trudeau for the job (83%).
“It is curious to see the
NDP stealing share, directly or indirectly, from the Conservatives, when the
Liberals are usually the target” said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com
or at (416) 960-9603.