The Forum Poll™ - Liberal’s maintain majority if election were held today

Gap narrows between Liberals and Conservatives

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Gap narrows between Liberals and Conservatives

Liberal’s maintain majority if election were held today

Toronto, January 22nd – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1,332 Canadian voters, the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives, measured at eight points last month, shrunk to just six points today.

Amongst decided and leaning voters, Liberal support has remained steady at (42%), but Conservative support has increased to (36%), up two percentage points since last month (December 8: 34%).

The increase in Conservative support comes at the expense of the Greens (5%) and Bloc Quebecois (4%) – each is down a point since December (December 8: Greens 6%, Bloc Quebecois 5%). NDP support remains unchanged (12%).

In British Columbia the Liberals (37%) are no longer tied with the Conservatives (32%) and have extended a notable lead in the province.

In the Atlantic region, the Liberals are steady at (66%) while the Conservatives are down slightly (21%).

In Quebec, the Liberals have lost support (42%) since December (Dec 8 - 45%), and the Conservatives have seen their support rise to (21%). The Bloc Quebecois see a slight dip in January to (17%), down from December (December 10: 19%). Support for the NDP is at (13%).

Ontario sees modest increases for both the Liberals (44%) and the Conservatives (42%), and a decrease for the NDP (10%).

In the prairies support for the Conservatives is still very strong (45%) and they've increased their lead over the Liberals (34%) from six to eleven points since December. (December 8: Conservatives 43%, Liberals 37%). The NDP has their strongest base of support here, and saw an increase in their support (18%).

Voter support in Alberta still belongs to the Conservatives (61%), who saw their lead extend twelve points (37%) over the Liberals (24%) in January. The NDP saw its total rise to (10%).

Despite rising Conservative support, Liberals maintain majority

If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would see a 187 seat majority.

The Conservatives would win 131 seats, the NDP would secure 15, the Bloc 4, and the Green Party 1.

Since December, this represents a gain of 7 seats for the Liberals, a loss of 4 seats by the Conservatives, and a loss of 3 seats by the NDP. (December 8: Liberals 180, Conservatives 135, and the NDP 18)

Trudeau, Ambrose, and Mulcair all see favourables dip

The favourables of all three party leaders have decreased in January.

Justin Trudeau has the strongest approval of any party leader (48%), this is down three points since December (December 8: 51%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) has been cut in half since December, it now sits at +6. His approval is strongest among the youngest (55%), females (54%), and in Atlantic Canada (73%). He has the approval of virtually all Liberals (85%) and one half of New Democrats (48%).

Rona Ambrose does not reach the approval level of Justin Trudeau, hers rests at (33%). Her net favourable score now sits only one point behind the Prime Minister at +5.

Tom Mulcair has seen his disapproval rating (34%) exceed his approval rating (31%), which makes his net favourable score the worst of the three, at -3, down four points since December (December 8: +1)

Justin Trudeau remains first choice for best Prime Minister

Just under forty percent (38%) see Justin Trudeau as the best choice for Prime Minister. The second choice, for the second month in a row, is "none of these," which garnered (22%). "None of these" is up five percentage points since December (Dec 8: 17%), corresponding with the net favourable loss suffered by all three leaders in January.

"While Justin Trudeau's popularity has taken a significant hit over the past months, there is no doubt his Liberals are a loyal force. Their support is holding steady, and despite an increase in Conservative fortunes, the Liberals would see their hold on the house of commons grow if an election were held today," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.   

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.