Gap narrows between
Liberals and Conservatives
Liberal’s maintain majority if election were held today
Toronto, January 22nd
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among
1,332 Canadian voters, the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives, measured
at eight points last month, shrunk to just six points today.
Amongst decided and
leaning voters, Liberal support has remained steady at (42%), but Conservative
support has increased to (36%), up two percentage points since last month (December
8: 34%).
The increase in
Conservative support comes at the expense of the Greens (5%) and Bloc Quebecois
(4%) – each is down a point since December (December 8: Greens 6%, Bloc
Quebecois 5%). NDP support remains unchanged (12%).
In British Columbia the Liberals (37%)
are no longer tied with the Conservatives (32%) and have extended a notable
lead in the province.
In the Atlantic
region, the Liberals are steady at (66%) while the Conservatives are down
slightly (21%).
In Quebec, the
Liberals have lost support (42%) since December (Dec 8 - 45%), and the
Conservatives have seen their support rise to (21%). The Bloc Quebecois see a
slight dip in January to (17%), down from December (December 10: 19%). Support
for the NDP is at (13%).
Ontario sees modest
increases for both the Liberals (44%) and the Conservatives (42%), and a decrease
for the NDP (10%).
In the prairies
support for the Conservatives is still very strong (45%) and they've increased
their lead over the Liberals (34%) from six to eleven points since December.
(December 8: Conservatives 43%, Liberals 37%). The NDP has their strongest base
of support here, and saw an increase in their support (18%).
Voter support in
Alberta still belongs to the Conservatives (61%), who saw their lead extend
twelve points (37%) over the Liberals (24%) in January. The NDP saw its total
rise to (10%).
Despite rising Conservative support, Liberals maintain majority
If these results are
projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would see a 187
seat majority.
The Conservatives
would win 131 seats, the NDP would secure 15, the Bloc 4, and the Green Party 1.
Since December, this
represents a gain of 7 seats for the Liberals, a loss of 4 seats by the
Conservatives, and a loss of 3 seats by the NDP. (December 8: Liberals 180,
Conservatives 135, and the NDP 18)
Trudeau, Ambrose, and Mulcair all see favourables dip
The favourables of
all three party leaders have decreased in January.
Justin Trudeau has
the strongest approval of any party leader (48%), this is down three points
since December (December 8: 51%). His net favourable score (approve minus
disapprove) has been cut in half since December, it now sits at +6. His
approval is strongest among the youngest (55%), females (54%), and in Atlantic
Canada (73%). He has the approval of virtually all Liberals
(85%) and one half of New Democrats (48%).
Rona Ambrose does
not reach the approval level of Justin Trudeau, hers rests at (33%). Her net
favourable score now sits only one point behind the Prime Minister at +5.
Tom Mulcair has seen
his disapproval rating (34%) exceed his approval rating (31%), which makes his
net favourable score the worst of the three, at -3, down four points since
December (December 8: +1)
Justin Trudeau remains first choice for best Prime Minister
Just under forty
percent (38%) see Justin Trudeau as the best choice for Prime Minister. The
second choice, for the second month in a row, is "none of these,"
which garnered (22%). "None of these" is up five percentage points
since December (Dec 8: 17%), corresponding with the net favourable loss
suffered by all three leaders in January.
"While Justin
Trudeau's popularity has taken a significant hit over the past months, there is
no doubt his Liberals are a loyal force. Their support is holding steady, and
despite an increase in Conservative fortunes, the Liberals would see their hold
on the house of commons grow if an election were held today," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
