Few
approve of budget
Approval highest among seniors, the wealthy and males
TORONTO April
23rd, 2015 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 977 Canadian
voters, less than 3-in-10 (29%) approve of the budget, while as many as 4-in-10
(40%) disapprove. One third do not know enough about it to form an opinion
(31%). Approval is common to the oldest (65+ - 38%), males (33%), lower income
groups ($20K to $40K - 32%) and the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 33%, $100K to
$250K - 29%), in Quebec (34%) and Alberta (33%), among Conservative voters
(66%) and the best educated (post grad - 32%). Disapproval is highest among mid
income groups ($60K to $80K - 47%), in Atlantic Canada (45%) and BC (51%),
among Liberals (53%) and New Democrats (57%) and Greens (55%) and among the
best educated (post grad - 45%).
3-in-10 less likely to vote Conservative because of budget,
fewer more likely to do so
Three-in-ten
voters are less likely to vote Conservative because of this budget (31%), while
fewer than a quarter are more likely to vote Conservative (23%). Four-in-ten
will not change their vote one way or another because of this budget (42%), and
few don’t have an opinion (4%). Being more likely to vote Conservative is
common to the oldest (29%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 26%), in Alberta
(29%), among the least educated (26%) and those with children in the home
(29%). Being less likely to vote for the governing party is common to those in
mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 40%, $60K to $80K - 36%), the least educated
(34%) and the best educated (post grad - 34%) and those with no children (36%).
Voters like elements of budget better than budget itself
While
just 3-in-10 approve of the budget overall (29%), elements which were tested
proved more popular. Highest approval (88%) is for the caretaker leave
extension, which is especially popular in Atlantic Canada (95%) and among
Francophones (93%).
The
next in approval is the extension of the Universal Child Care Benefit from
young children to teens, and additional funding (68% approval). This is
especially well-liked by the least wealthy (72%), Conservatives (78%) and
mothers with children (82%).
Rounding
out the top three budget measures is funding for transit (67%), popular among
the youngest (72%) and the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 72%), in the prairies
(73%) and Alberta (74%) and among New Democrats (73%).
Other
budget measures tested for approval include income splitting for families with
children under 18 (65% approval), especially among the less wealthy ($20K to
$40K - 72%), Conservatives (76%) and mothers of kids under 18 (75%).
Just
more than 6-in-10 approve of the increase in the TFSA limit (61%), and this is
characteristic of those who have TFSAs (68%), as well as the wealthiest ($100K
to $250K - 66%), in Alberta (70%), among Conservatives (80%) and college
graduates (68%).
Least
popular among voters in general, is the relaxation of RRIF withdrawal rules
(51% approval), but this approval is especially characteristic of those it
targets, seniors 71 and older (65+ - 67%), the wealthiest ($80K to $100K - 60%,
$100K to $250K - 62%), in the prairies (60%) and Alberta (58%), among
Conservatives (69%) and the best educated (57%).
More see budget as bad for economy than see it as good.
One
quarter of voters agree the budget is bad for the economy (25%) and one fifth
say it is good for it (20%), while 4-in-10 insist it is neither (43%). One
tenth don’t know (12%). Thinking the budget bad for the economy is
characteristic of the wealthy ($80k to $100K - 33%), in Atlantic Canada (33%),
not in the prairies (16%) and among New Democrats (40%) and the best educated
(36%). Thinking the budget will be good for the economy is characteristic of
the oldest (27%) males (26%).
“This
budget is a game of darts where every target got hit, and responded. The
seniors like the RRIF adjustment tailored for them, families with children like
their expanded child care benefit and income splitting and those who invest
like the TFSA increase. Nonetheless, voters as a whole don’t think much of the
budget as a whole, and there is little confidence it will be good for the
economy. Its biggest fans happen to be those the opposition parties predicted:
seniors and the wealthy," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
