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Liberal Support Sags
McNeil very unpopular
Toronto, May 17th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by
The Forum Poll™ among 1057 Nova Scotia voters, for those decided and leaning, the
Liberals, with over a third (37%) lead but are statistically tied with the
Progressive Conservatives (35%) who are just behind. A quarter of respondents
(25%) say they support the NDP. Few support the Green Party (4%).
Liberal support has dropped 4 points since the beginning of the
campaign (May 3: 41%). The PC share of support has increased by 5 points (May
3: 32%). NDP support is unchanged at (25%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include
those aged 55-64 (40%), 65+ (43%), the least wealthy (45%), with some
college/university (42%), and living on the South Shore (43%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the Progressive
Conservatives include those aged 65+ (39%), the least educated (37%) or with a
college/university degree (36%), and living in Cape Breton (42%) or the North
Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those
aged 34 and younger (29%), 35-44 (32%), 45-54 (32%), females (30%), with a
post-graduate degree (32%), and living in Halifax (33%).
Midway through the
campaign, Liberal minority possible
The race has narrowed considerably, and if an election were held
today, the Liberals would secure a minority government with 22 seats. The PC
would remain the official opposition with 17 seats, and the NDP would secure a
strong 12 seats.
McNeil again edges
Baillie as best premier, but they are virtually tied
Almost 3-in-10 (28%) believe Stephen McNeil would make the best
premier, just ahead of Jamie Baillie (26%). 2-in-10 see Gary Burrill (20%) as
best premier, with just over a quarter (26%) reporting they don’t know who
would make the best premier.
disapproval, Baillie and Burrill better, but still negative
Just over a quarter (28%) approve of Stephen
McNeil, but more than 6 in 10 say they disapprove of his job as premier. His
net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a dismal -32. Just over
1-in-10 (11%) say they do not know about his performance.
approval is better than a third (34%), but his disapproval exceeds it at (37%),
for a net favourable score of -3. Almost a third (29%) say they do not know
about his performance.
Gary Burrill sees
approval from a third (33%), but disapproval of more than a third (36%), for a
net favourable score of -3. A third (32%) say the do not know about his
"The premier is
very unpopular right now, and that could be why we are seeing such a dip in the
Liberal numbers, right now,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416)