Summer is Ebbing,
but the Federal Liberal Lead is Not
Conservative message having no effect on
Toronto, August 24th–
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ amongst 1150 Canadian voters, amongst
those decided and leaning, if an election were held today, four in ten (42%)
say they would support the Liberals. More than a third (35%) say they would
support the Conservatives, and just over one in ten (14%) say they would
support the NDP.
The Green party (4%)
and the Bloc Quebécois (4%) follow behind, with ‘other’ parties securing (1%).
most likely to support the Liberals include those aged 65 and over (65%),
female (48%), earning $100,000-$250,000 (50%), living in the Atlantic provinces
(56%), and have a college/university (44%) or post-graduate (44%) degree.
most likely to support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (44%), male
(44%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (35%), $60,000-$80,000 (35%), or
$80,000-$100,000 (37%), and living in Alberta (57%).
most likely to support the NDP include those aged 35-44 (18%) or 55-64 (14%),
living in British Columbia (21%), and have a post-graduate degree (22%).
Liberals to increase majority
If an election were held today, the Liberals would
increase their majority, with the Conservatives winning 105 seats, the Liberals
211, the NDP 16, the BQ 5, and 1 for the Green.
Trudeau approval stable
Trudeau’s net favourable score is stable over the summer. Almost half (49%) say
they approve of his performance so far, while just over four in ten (42%) say
they disapprove. His net favourable score remains +7.
a small proportion of voters (10%) say they do not know.
Scheer sees approval amongst one quarter (25%) of voters and disapproval at the
same proportion (26%). His net favourable score is -1. Andrew Scheer has failed
to make an impression on the plurality, however, with almost half (48%) saying
they do not know.
Mulcair sees an approval of more than a third (36%) and his disapproval is just
under 3 in 10 (29%), though over a third (34%) say they do not know about his
performance. His net favourable score is equal to Justin Trudeau at +7.
Trudeau still seen by plurality as the
Almost 4 in 10 see
Justin Trudeau (39%) as the best PM. Andrew Scheer is seen by fewer than 2 in
10 (18%) as the best PM, and Tom Mulcair is favoured by only 1 in 10 (10%).
“For the most part,
the numbers for both the leaders and their parties have remained consistent
throughout the summer. As the start of the fall legislative session nears, we
may expect some upheaval in these numbers as MPs get back to work, but for now
Justin Trudeau holds a favourable edge over both his main rivals,” said
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.