CC Image courtesy of Mike Foote: http://bit.ly/2xRSMaz
Fall Blues for
People moving toward Conservatives, but
Scheer still not established
Toronto, September 21st
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ amongst
1350 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were
held today, almost four in ten (39%) say they would support the Conservatives,
with more than a third (35%) saying they would support the Liberals.
The NDP is supported
by almost one sixth (15%), followed by the Bloc Quebécois (5%), and the Green
Party (4%), with other parties securing (1%).
likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 35-44 (50%),
males (48%), the most wealthy (53%), living in Alberta (69%), with some
college/university (42%) or a college/university degree (42%).
likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (42%), females
(39%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (39%), living in the Atlantic (49%), the least
educated (37%), and those with a post-graduate degree (38%).
likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 or younger (23%) and
the least wealthy (28%).
Conservatives could win minority if
election held today
If an election were held today, the Conservatives would
unseat the Liberals as government with a 169 seat minority. The Liberals would
win 130 seats, the NDP 26, with 12 for the BQ, and 1 for the Green Party.
Trudeau approval down, Scheer still an
than four in ten (43%) say they approve of Trudeau’s performance, which is down
six points since August (August 24th: 49%). Almost half (47%) say
they disapprove of his performance, up five points in the same time period (August
24th: 42%). His net favourable score drops to -4 from +7 in August,
an eleven point swing (August 24th: +7).
a small proportion of voters (11%) say they do not know.
Scheer sees approval amongst one quarter (26%) of voters and disapproval of
almost a third (30%). His net favourable score is -1.
Scheer has failed to make an impression on the plurality, however, with almost
half (44%) saying they do not know whether they approve or disapprove.
Mulcair sees approval of more than a third (37%) and his disapproval is just
under 3 in 10 (29%), though over a third (34%) say they do not know about his
performance. His net favourable score is +9.
Trudeau still seen by plurality as the
Despite the dip in
his popularity overall, more than a third (34%) see Trudeau as the best
candidate for Prime Minister. Andrew Scheer is seen by 2 in 10 (20%) as the
best PM, and Tom Mulcair is favoured by just over 1 in 10 (12%).
“Trudeau enters the
fall legislative session with his popularity slipping. The primary beneficiary
of Trudeau’s decline is Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives,” said
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Scheer is still a
significantly unknown quantity to the plurality of voters, however, and must further
differentiate himself from Trudeau to solidify his recent gains.”
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
email@example.com or at (416) 960-9603.