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Liberal Support Still Soft
The narrow gap between
Conservative and Liberal, first identified by Forum, is now a trend
9th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum
Poll™ among 1281 Canadian voters, almost four in ten
(38%) say that if an election were held today, they would support the
Conservative Party, a similar proportion of support we saw (September 21: 39%)
when last in the field.
Just over one third (36%) say they would support the Liberals, which is also very close to
their support (September 21: 35%) when last in the field.
sixth (14%) saying they’d support the NDP, effectively unchanged (September 21:
15%) since we polled last.
Few say they
would support the (6%) Green (September 21: 4%), with as many (6%) saying they
support the BQ (September 21: 5%). (1%) said they support another party.
most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 65+ (42%),
males (45%), the most wealthy (48%), living in the prairies (74%, n=84), with
some college/university (45%).
most likely to say they support the Liberals include females (39%), the least
wealthy (44%), living in Atlantic Canada (54%), and with a post-graduate degree
most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger
(21%), the least wealthy (21%), living in Québec (15%), Ontario (15%), or
Alberta (16%), and with a college/university (17%) or post-graduate degree
Despite dip in support, Liberals still likely to hold a
minority, if an election were held today
Due to vote
distribution, and the statistical tie between Conservative and Liberal, the Liberals
would still form a minority government, if an election were held today,
securing 164 of 338 seats.
Conservatives would win 148 seats and would form the official opposition.
The NDP would
secure 15 seats, the BQ 11, and the Greens would increase their seat count by
100% with 2 seats.
“The Liberals’ dip in popularity, first
identified by Forum in September, has steadied in November, but that it hasn’t
rebounded suggests their down numbers might be more than just a blip,” said Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “There are still two years before
the next election, which is an eternity in politics, but clearly some of the
negatively received policies introduced by the Liberals of late have begun to
hinder their overall support.”
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.