Alberta NDP headed for historic majority

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Alberta NDP headed for historic majority

PCAA headed for rout

TORONTO May 2nd, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1060 Alberta voters three days before the provincial election, more than 4-in-10 will vote for the NDP (42%) compared to fewer than a quarter who will vote Wildrose (24%) and fewer yet who will vote for the incumbent Progressive Conservatives (21%). One twentieth will vote Liberal or Alberta Party (5% each) and few will vote for another party (3%).

The NDP is dominant in Edmonton (55%) and leads the other parties in Calgary (37%), central Alberta (32%) and in northern Alberta (38%). Wildrose leads in southern Alberta (42%).

The NDP vote is common to the wealthiest ($80K to $100K - 49%, $100K to $250K - 46%) and the youngest (under 25 - 48%, 25 to 34 - 51%).

As many as 4-in-10 of those who voted PC in the last election will vote for the NDP this time (40%), as will one sixth of past Wildrose voters (16%). A similar proportion, however, will vote PC this time (15%). In total, just one third of past PCAA voters will vote for the party again (35%).

Historic majority for NDP, PCAA all but gone

If these results are projected up to an 87 seat Legislature, the NDP would capture a staggering 69 seats, 25 more than needed for a majority. Wildrose would take 16 seats, and the PCs would be reduced to just 2 seats.

"We noted the initial momentum of the NDP at the very beginning of the campaign, then cautiously spoke of an NDP majority mid-way through. Now the campaign is almost over, it appears the NDP are headed for a truly historic victory, almost as historic as the rout the 40 year Alberta Tory dynasty appears to face," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.