Liberal Support Ticks Up, But Landscape Unchanged
More disapprove of
Trudeau than approve
15th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum
Poll™ among 1284 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, once again the
Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in support, with the
Conservatives seeing support from just under 4 in 10 (39%) and the Liberals
(38%) seeing support from a similar proportion.
Conservative support (39%) is very
similar what that we saw in November (Nov 9: 38%).
While current Liberal support (38%) has
risen slightly since November, (Nov 9: 36%), Liberal support since then is effectively
unchanged, as it’s within the margin of error.
Support for the NDP is just over 1 in
10 (12%) and, like the Liberals, hasn’t changed much since November (Nov 9:
Few say they would support the Green
(5%) (Nov 9: 6%), BQ (5%) (Nov 9: 6%), or another party (1%).
Respondents most likely to say they
support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (40%), 55-64 (39%), or 65+
(42%), males (48%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (45%) or the most wealthy (43%),
living in the prairies (MB/SK) (59%) or Alberta (58%), and the least educated
(43%), with some college/university (40%), or a college/university degree
Respondents most likely to say they
support the Liberals include those aged 55-64 (43%), females (45%), the least
wealthy (41%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (41%), or the most wealthy (42%), living
in the Atlantic (46%) or Québec (43%), and with a post-graduate degree (46%).
If an election were held today, we would
expect to see a Liberal minority of 166 seats, with the Conservatives’ serving once
again as official opposition with 147.
The NDP would secure 15 and the BQ would
win 9. The Green Party would hold their seat.
Trudeau approval down,
Scheer and Singh still unknown
Justin Trudeau now sees disapproval from
almost half of all respondents (47%), with the approval of just over 4 in 10
(42%). About 1 in 10 (11%) say they do not know. His net favourable score
(approve – disapprove) is -5.
Trudeau’s approval remains mostly unchanged
since September (Sep 21: 43%) as is his disapproval (Sep 21: 47%).
Andrew Scheer sees approval from just over
one-quarter (28%) and disapproval of the same proportion (28%). To the
plurality, however, (44%) he remains an unknown. His net favourable score is 0.
Scheer’s support, like Trudeau’s, is most
unchanged from September, with his approval (Sep 21: 26%) and disapproval (Sep
21: 30%), in very similar proportions to that month.
In our first test of Jagmeet Singh as leader
of the NDP, he sees a very similar line to that of Andrew Scheer with just over
a quarter (28%) saying they approve and the same proportion (27%) saying they
The plurality say they do not know (45%).
Trudeau the choice for best PM
Trudeau remains the choice for best Prime Minister with almost a third
(30%) saying the current PM is still the best choice for PM.
Andrew Scheer is the second choice, with 2 in 10 (21%) saying it’s him
that’s the best choice.
None of these is the choice of one-sixth (16%), with Elizabeth May
(10%), Jagmeet Singh (9%), and do not know (10%) bunched together. Few believe
Martine Ouellet (5%) would make the best Prime Minister.
“It looks as though the Federal
landscape has stabilized somewhat, which is good news for the Prime Minister
who’d seen his support fluctuate over the past few months,” said Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Andrew Scheer should be pleased with
his party’s performance as well, but both Scheer and new NDP leader Jagmeet
Singh have the same problem: they remain unknown to a considerable
portion of the electorate. Voters can expect to see the two leaders
criss-crossing the nation in an attempt to raise their profile while the house
is on break.”
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.