The Forum Poll™ - People’s Alliance and Green battling for third

Liberals Lead But PCs Tracking for Thin Majority

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Liberals Lead But PCs Tracking for Thin Majority

People’s Alliance and Green battling for third

Toronto, September 13th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1300 New Brunswick voters, amongst those decided and leaning, just over a third (37%) say they would vote Liberal if an election were held today, while a third (32%) says they would vote Progressive Conservative.

 

One-sixth (15%) say they would support the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick, with 1 in 10 (11%) saying they would support the Green Party.

 

Few (4%) identify as NDP voters, or as supporting another party (1%).

 

Coon most popular leader, half disapprove of Gallant

Only a third (34%) approve of the job Brian Gallant is doing as premier, while half (54%) say they disapprove. 1 in 10 (11%) say they do not know.

 

Gallant’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -20.

 

A third (35%) say they approve of the job Blaine Higgs is doing as leader of the PCs, while 4 in 10 (40%) say they disapprove. One-quarter (25%) say they do not know.

Higgs’ net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -5.

4 in 10 (40%) say they approve of the job David Coon is doing as leader of the Green Party, with a quarter (22%) saying they disapprove. 4 in 10 (38%) say they do not know.

Coon’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is +19.

One-fifth (18%) say they approve of the job Jennifer McKenzie is doing as Leader of the NDP, with almost a third (29%) saying they disapprove. Half (53%) say they do not know.

McKenzie’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -11.

A quarter (27%) say they approve of the job Kris Austin is doing as leader of the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick, while a similar proportion (28%) say they disapprove. More than 4 in 10 (45%) say they do not know.

Austin’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -1.

Gallant and Higgs seen as best Premier

One quarter (28%) say that Brian Gallant would make the best Premier of New Brunswick, while a similar proportion (26%) say Higgs would make the best Premier.

1 in 10 (12%) say David Coon would make the best Premier, while a similar proportion (11%) say Kris Austin would make the best premier.

Few (4%) identified Jennifer McKenzie as the best premier.

One-fifth (19%) do not know which candidate would make the best premier.

 Almost half say Liberals most likely to win

More than 4 in 10 (46%) say the Liberals are most likely to win, with a third (30%) saying it would be the PCs.

1 in 10 (8%) say the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick is most likely to win. Few identify either the NDP (2%) or Green (2%) as likely to win.

1 in 10 (12%) say they do not know.

Included amongst those that said the Liberals are likely to win are (86%) of Liberal voters, a quarter (22%) of PC voters, a third (32%) of NDP voters, 4 in 10 (42%)Green voters, and one-fifth (18%) of People’s Alliance voters.

Included amongst those that said the PCs are likely to win are two-thirds (68%) of PC voters, (5%) of Liberal voters, a quarter (28%) of NDP voters, a quarter (25%) of Green voters, and a quarter (25%) of People’s Alliance of New Brunswick voters.

4 in 10 (41%) of People’s Alliance voters believes the People’s Alliance are likely to win, but only one-sixth (13%) of Green voters believe the Greens are likely to win. One-fifth (19%) of NDP voters believe the NDP are likely to win.

 A third says the economy is their biggest issue

A third (30%) say the economy is the issue that is most likely to determine their vote. Healthcare (18%) and it’s time for a change (15%) following somewhat far behind.

Education (10%), local candidate (7%), and ethics in government (7%) are clustered together.

Few (2%) identify party loyalty as their biggest issue.

1 in 10 (10%) said another issue was their biggest.

Almost half (46%) of PC voters say the economy is their biggest issue, with a quarter (26%) of Liberals saying the same.

Narrow PC Majority

If the election were held today, the PCs project to secure 25 seats, with the Liberals serving as official opposition with 22. The Green and the People’s alliance would secure 1 seat each.

 “The Liberals lead, but the Progressive Conservatives are likely much closer than they would want at this point in the campaign, with Gallant’s high level of disapproval potentially dragging their support down, somewhat” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Kris Austin and the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick have surged into third place and lead the Green Party. As of right now, it looks like it could be a fight to the finish for both the Premier’s chair, and the third party.”

 Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.