Dead heat!

| Filed under: National

Dead heat!

All three federal parties tied

TORONTO May 14th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1286 Canadian voters, almost exactly equal proportions, 3-in-10, will vote Conservative (31%), Liberal (31%) or NDP (30%) if the federal election were held today. This represents a decline for the Conservatives (from 35% on April 22) and a sharp increase for the NDP (from just 23%). Few will vote Bloc Quebecois (3%), Green (4%) or for another party (1%). In Ontario, the Conservatives have a very slight lead (36%) over the Liberals (34%), while the NDP trails (26%). In Quebec, however, the NDP are firmly in front (38%), ahead of the Liberals (30%). The Conservatives (16%) and the Bloc Quebecois (13%) do not contend.

Among past Liberal voters (May, 2011), more than a tenth will vote NDP this time around (13%), as will a similar proportion of past Conservatives (11%). About one sixth of past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time (16%), and this is about half the level usually seen. About one tenth of past Conservatives will vote New Democrat (11%).

Weak Conservative minority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in a 338 seat House, the Conservatives would take a minority of 131, 39 fewer than needed for a majority. The NDP would form the opposition again with 111 seats, and the Liberals would capture 95 seats. The Green Party would retain their leader’s seat.

Leader approval stable

Despite the sharp increase in voter preference for the NDP, opposition leader Tom Mulcair’s favourables are steady (approve - 46%, net favourable score - +19, compared to 48% and +20 on April 16). Justin Trudeau’s approval is steady as well (39% and -2 now, 40% and -2 last month). The Prime Minister’s approval is down very slightly (from 33% to 31%), as is his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove, -25 last month to -30 this month).

Expectation of Liberal or Conservative victory

When asked which party will win the next election, roughly equal proportions, about 3-in-10, opt for the Conservatives (32%) or the Liberals (30%). These findings are down sharply from April 16 (36% and 37%, respectively), while the NDP have seen expectations for their victory increase strongly (from 10% to 20%).

"It is clear the Notley victory in Alberta has shaken up the federal political scene. Conservatives (and Liberals), who used to park their disaffected votes with the Greens have now been given ‘permission’ to vote for the NDP if they are unhappy with their own party, and it appears many of them are," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.