The Forum Poll™ - If election held today, Conservatives would secure majority

Conservatives leading over Liberals

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Conservatives leading over Liberals

If election held today, Conservatives would secure majority

 Toronto, December 3rd – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1541 Canadian voters, with those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (43%) say they would support the Conservatives, with a third (34%) saying they would support the Liberals.

1 in 10 (11%) say they would support the NDP, with a few (6%) supporting the Green Party. Few would support the BQ (4%) or another party (1%).

Respondents most likely to support the Conservatives include those who live in the Prairies (Alberta 65%, Manitoba/Saskatchewan 57%), males (51%), between the ages of 45-54 (51%), earning between $60k-$80k (49%), and/or have an education level of secondary school or less (47%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those who live in the Atlantic region (50%), between the ages of 35-44 (35%), are 65 and over (35%), earning between 100k-250k (40%) and/or earned a post-graduate degree (40%).

Based on these results, the Conservatives are tracking toward a majority government of 180 seats. The Liberals would serve as official opposition with 140. The NDP would secure 10, the BQ 6, and the Greens 2.

Is Canada better or worse than in 2014?

When asked if Canada is doing better or worse than it was 4 years ago, just under half of respondents (TOP2: 47%) stated it was better with a third (32%) stating it was a bit better and about 1 in 7 (15%) stating it was much better.  While a little over half of respondents (BTM2: 53%) stated it was worse, about a quarter (23%) stated it was a bit worse and under a third (30%) stating it was much worse.

Unsurprisingly, the majority of Conservative voters (BTM2: 88%) believe that Canada is worse than it was 4 years ago while the majority of Liberal voters (TOP2: 86%) believe that Canada is better than it was 4 years ago.

However, nearly 6 in 10 NDP and Green voters (TOP2: 58%, 62%) believe that Canada is better than it was 4 years ago with a little over 1 in 2 Bloc Quebecois voters (54%) agreeing with the same sentiment.

Trudeau, Scheer nearly tied for ‘Best Prime Minister’

When asked who would make the best Prime Minister regardless of which party they plan to vote for, 1 in 3 respondents selected Trudeau (33%) and Scheer (32%). 22% stated that they didn’t know, while a few selected Elizabeth May (8%) and Jagmeet Singh (6%).

Trudeau, Singh disapproval rating high

More than half (54%) respondents disapprove of the job that Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister while over 1 in 3 (38%) approve and a little under 1 in 10 (8%) don’t know.

4 in 10 (41%) disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh is doing as the leader of the NDP, 1 in 5 approve (20%) and almost 4 in 10 (39%) don’t know.

However, Andrew Scheer has a relatively even rating across the board with 1 in 3 (35%) who disapprove of the job Andrew Scheer is doing as the leader of the opposition, 1 in 3 approve (33%) and 1 in 3 (32%) don’t know.

1 in 3 (34%) approve of the job Elizabeth May is doing as the leader of the Green Party while 1 in 4 (27%) disapprove and 4 in 10 (39%) don’t know. 

“The Conservatives have a strong and steady lead over the Liberals as we go into the New Year,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “With more than half of NDP, BQ and Green voters believing that Canada is better off now than it was 4 years ago, it will be imperative for Trudeau’s Liberals to capture uncommitted voters from those parties in order to have a chance at winning the election over Scheer’s Conservatives”.

 

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.